Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) halts further rate hikes and the economy remains stable, according to a report by Grayscale.

Bitcoin is a macro asset and it trades with macro variables (e.g., growth and policy expectations).

If the Fed doesn't hike, $BTC may have already bottomed, even if the 4-year cycle framework implies a longer bear market.

Quick blog post: https://t.co/9tnWphYwJc pic.twitter.com/6928J1fCAa

— Zach Pandl (@LowBeta) July 22, 2026

Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, compared two market assessment approaches. According to a model linked to halvings, Bitcoin could continue to decline and hit a low in September or October 2026.

Grayscale's analysis shows that in previous cycles, the price of the first cryptocurrency typically formed a bottom about a year after its peak and 2.5 years post-halving, with an average drawdown of around 80%.

Pandl supported an alternative view: Bitcoin has matured as an asset and now reacts more strongly to macroeconomic factors, similar to other major asset classes. In this scenario, the market could turn around sooner than historical cycles suggest.

“The key takeaway: the notion of a 'four-year cycle' predicts lower price lows for Bitcoin, but the macroeconomic outlook suggests that the bottom may have already been reached,” the analyst wrote.

The next Fed meeting is scheduled for July 29. According to CME FedWatch, market participants estimate a 66% chance of keeping rates unchanged, down from 88% a week earlier.

Source: CME FedWatch.

Regulatory uncertainty remains a separate risk. In a report dated June 26, Pandl acknowledged that the failure to pass the CLARITY Act in 2026 could push Strategy and other companies with Bitcoin reserves to further reduce leverage, moderately increasing price pressure.

Previously, analysts at K33 noted that over 50% of Bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss. Their observations indicate that such levels often precede the formation of a bottom within weeks in past cycles.

Miner Jiang Zhouer, on the other hand, anticipates a later bottom. According to his forecast, Bitcoin could bottom out in the fourth quarter of 2026 in the range of $42,000 to $44,000.

It is worth noting that in June, Grayscale analysts referred to the sale of Bitcoins by Strategy as a "stress test" of its financial model.