Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn claims Bitcoin's bear market has ended, recommending it as a strong buy as it enters an accumulation phase.
Key Insights
- Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn asserts that Bitcoin's bear market concluded in June, suggesting it is now in an accumulation phase.
- Bitcoin has maintained five consecutive weekly closes above its 50-week moving average, a first during any bear market.
- Thorn highlights substantial federal debt and rising Treasury yields as favorable conditions for Bitcoin's future growth.
Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, believes that Bitcoin has exited its bear market and is currently in a phase favorable for accumulation. In a report released on Monday, Thorn stated, "We believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."
This bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin trades around $80,000, which marks a 36% drop from its peak in October 2025 but is still 39% above its June 30 low. On Sunday, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $80,000 mark, reaching approximately $79,700, according to CoinGecko.
Thorn's analysis is supported by significant chart patterns. Following a 44-week period below its 50-week moving average, Bitcoin regained this level in September and has since closed above it for five straight weeks. Historically, after similar recoveries, Bitcoin has not seen prices dip more than 8.4% below this average over the following year, eventually reaching prior all-time highs.
The recent cycle also marks the shallowest downturn recorded, with Bitcoin experiencing a maximum drop of only 53%, compared to previous cycles which saw declines ranging from 77% to 93%.
Notably, Bitcoin's market value has not fallen below its realized value during this bear market, a first for the cryptocurrency. The ratio between these values reached a low of 1.10, significantly higher than previous cycles.
Short-term holders, who contributed to Bitcoin's recovery from a price of $58,525, currently show a profit margin of about 9%, with an average acquisition cost of $74,811. The spent-output profit ratio is slightly above 1, indicating that most holders are not selling their assets.
Selling pressure appears to be decreasing, with long-held coins selling at a reduced rate of approximately 34,000 BTC per month, which is significantly lower than the pace in 2024. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated 87,000 BTC since the June low.
Thorn points to macroeconomic factors as supportive for Bitcoin's future. With U.S. federal debt surpassing $40 trillion and the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.31%, he argues that investing in Bitcoin could be more appealing compared to traditional fiat assets. He cautions that a significant drop below the 50-week average, currently at $76,540, could alter this bullish perspective.
Despite the volatile market conditions, including fluctuations in Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows, Thorn remains optimistic, asserting that Bitcoin has the potential to reach levels of at least $125,000 again. Both Galaxy Digital and Thorn have disclosed their holdings in Bitcoin, reinforcing their commitment to the cryptocurrency's future.
