As the week commencing July 27 unfolds, significant economic indicators and earnings reports are set to shape the cryptocurrency landscape.

Interest rates are expected to play a crucial role in determining crypto market trends, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan likely to maintain their current rates. Market participants are keenly observing for indications that rising energy costs may prompt tighter monetary policies.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 33% probability of a rate hike in the U.S., while prediction markets indicate a 19% chance, a notable increase from earlier in the month. Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY-Parthenon, noted that September could serve as a critical evaluation of the Fed's position, as reported by CBS News.

In the near term, Thursday will bring the U.S. second-quarter GDP figures and the June Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report. Strong economic growth coupled with ongoing inflation could bolster expectations for prolonged elevated interest rates, potentially exerting downward pressure on crypto prices due to higher yields and a stronger dollar. Conversely, weaker economic data might reverse this trend.

A recent Reuters poll indicated that all 70 economists surveyed anticipate the Bank of England will maintain its rate at 3.75%, while the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its rate at 1%, with potential increases later this year.

On the crypto front, significant events include BitMEX’s early settlement of 35 derivatives contracts and the commencement of FTX’s creditor distribution, totaling around $900 million. Additionally, earnings reports from Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Strategy (MSTR) will provide further insight into retail trends and the performance of digital-asset treasury firms.

Key Events to Monitor

(All times in ET)

  • Cryptocurrency Specific
    • July 27: The CFTC’s window for comments on extending derivatives trading to 24/7 and allowing perpetual contracts for storable commodities closes.
    • July 29: Polygon will implement its Ithaca hard fork upgrade on the mainnet.
    • July 30: BitMEX will settle and delist 35 derivatives contracts as part of its wind-down.
    • July 31: The fifth distribution to creditors by the FTX Recovery Trust is set to begin.
  • Macroeconomic Indicators
    • July 27, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders for June (Previous: -4.5%).
    • July 28, 9:30 p.m.: Australia’s CPI YoY for June (Previous: 4.1%); RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY (Previous: 3.6%).
    • July 29, 2:00 p.m.: U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision, expected to remain at 3.75% (Previous: 3.75%).
    • July 29, 2:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Press Conference addressing monetary policy decisions and economic outlook.
    • July 30, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash for Q2 (Previous: -0.2%); YoY Flash (Previous: 0.3%).
    • July 30, 7:00 a.m.: Bank of England interest rate decision, expected to stay at 3.75% (Previous: 3.75%).
    • July 30, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. GDP growth rate QoQ Advance for Q2 (Previous: 2.1%).
    • July 30, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25 (Previous: 187K).
    • July 30, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. PCE price index YoY for June (Previous: 4.1%); Core PCE YoY (Previous: 3.4%).
    • July 30, 9:30 p.m.: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for July (Previous: 50.3); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Previous: 50.2).
    • July 30, 11:00 p.m.: Bank of Japan interest rate decision, expected to remain at 1% (Previous: 1%).
    • July 31, 5:00 a.m.: Eurozone CPI YoY Flash for July, estimated at 2.9% (Previous: 2.8%); Core CPI YoY Flash estimated at 2.4% (Previous: 2.4%).
  • Earnings Reports
    • July 28: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, estimated at $1.28.
    • July 29: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, estimated at $0.41.
    • July 29: Riot Platforms (RIOT), post-market, estimated at -$0.22.
    • July 29: SoFi Technologies (SOFI), pre-market, estimated at $0.11.
    • July 30: Mastercard (MA), pre-market, estimated at $4.76.
    • July 30: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, estimated at $0.14.
    • July 30: Strategy (MSTR), post-market, estimated at $16.85.
    • July 31: Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), pre-market, estimated at $3.32.
    • July 31: Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), post-market.

Token Events

  • Governance Votes and Proposals
    • Decentraland DAO is voting on proposals to reduce submission fees for Wearables and Emotes to $25, and to require annual reviews and 30-day updates for governance documents. Voting concludes on July 28 and July 30.
    • Cardano is conducting votes on various treasury withdrawals: 9.83 million ADA for the Blockfrost API, 1.78 million ADA for the Daedalus wallet, and 4.96 million ADA for an enterprise ticketing platform. Voting ends on July 28.
    • Optimism is holding veto votes on two maintenance upgrades: updating the sequencer configuration for Ink Mainnet and transferring administrative ownership of Swell to AltLayer for its wind-down. Both proposals will automatically pass unless vetoed by July 28.
  • Unlocks
    • July 28: Grass (GRASS) will unlock 5.7% of its circulating supply valued at $11.9 million.
    • July 29: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 2.8% of its circulating supply worth $817 million.
    • July 29: Bitget Token (BGB) will unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply valued at $21.5 million.
  • Token Launches
    • No significant token launches are scheduled.

Conferences

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