Bitcoin's recovery is at risk as long-term holders may sell if prices approach $85,000, according to Glassnode analysis.
Bitcoin Holders Face Potential Selling Pressure
A significant portion of Bitcoin's long-term holders, approximately 4 million BTC purchased at prices between $85,000 and $118,000, may sell if the cryptocurrency's price approaches these levels again. This insight comes from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which notes that many of these coins were acquired in 2025.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $81,400, reflecting a 1.2% increase over the past day but still approximately 35% below its all-time high of $126,080. The block of BTC held by long-term investors is valued at about $326 billion at present prices.
Market Dynamics and ETF Metrics
Glassnode observed that the $85,000 price point has repeatedly hindered Bitcoin's upward movement this year, with the asset managing to close above this threshold only five times since January. The last significant peak occurred in September when Bitcoin reached $87,100.
ETF holders are also close to breaking even, with their average acquisition cost estimated at just under $82,000. Analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted that the unrealized losses for ETF holders total around $2.63 billion as of Monday.
Impact of Federal Reserve's Rate Decision
This market situation comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 3.75% and 4.00%, a choice made in a 10-2 vote. The Fed's stance has influenced traders' expectations, with over 70% anticipating a potential rate hike in December. Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, believes that high U.S. Treasury yields are significantly impacting Bitcoin's performance by increasing the opportunity costs for investors in risk assets.
Sun noted that the current market dynamics indicate that any rise above $85,000 could trigger selling from long-term holders aiming to recover their investments. However, selling pressure appears to be light, as realized losses have decreased with each dip since August, suggesting a more stable market sentiment.
Looking ahead, analysts suggest that Bitcoin will likely continue trading within the $75,000 to $85,000 range until macroeconomic liquidity improves and ETF inflows stabilize. The ability of the market to absorb selling pressure near the $85,000 mark will be crucial in determining if a more robust recovery can take place.
