Bets on the winner of the World Cup resulted in losses for 66.7% of addresses on the prediction platform Polymarket, according to on-chain analyst defioasis.eth.
The World Cup has concluded, congratulations to Spain! I wonder which of my friends successfully predicted the outcome.
Among the more than 194,000 unique trading addresses in the Polymarket World Cup champion prediction market:
In terms of losses:
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026
- Nearly 130,000 addresses made incorrect predictions, accounting for about 66.7%
- Most participants had relatively small losses, with 114,000 addresses losing less than $100 each, averaging under $10… pic.twitter.com/z3kKImxnlZ
The expert analyzed over 194,000 wallets, with around 130,000 reporting losses. The distribution of profits and losses was uneven:
- Only five accounts reported profits exceeding $1 million;
- 114,000 addresses lost less than $100 each, averaging around $10;
- 43 addresses lost over $100,000 each, totaling more than $15 million;
- A third of participants made a profit, but for most, it did not exceed $100 — the average was below $5;
- 54 addresses earned over $100,000 each, totaling more than $22 million;
“Global events like the World Cup attract massive trading volumes and liquidity. However, the lion's share of profits ultimately goes to a few traders with stronger informational advantages and risk management,” noted defioasis.eth.
The Final Ruined Argentina's Top Bull
The final match of the 2026 World Cup took place in New Jersey (USA) on July 19, where Spain defeated Argentina 1-0.
Before the game, traders on Polymarket estimated Spain's chances of winning at about 58%, while Argentina's were at 42%. These odds were consistent with those from Polymarket's main competitor, Kalshi, as well as traditional bookmakers.
The defeat of the reigning champions wiped out the positions of their supporters. The largest among them, a trader known as gud.hl, lost his entire deposit of $1.23 million. He purchased contracts for Argentina's title in 28 transactions, paying over $30,000 in fees.
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026
According to defioasis.eth, at one point, the unrealized profit of the position exceeded $5 million, but the trader did not lock in those gains.
Draws Bankrupted Favorites Throughout the Tournament
The most significant losses during the World Cup were associated with draws. A trader under the pseudonym coldsway lost $11.6 million in ten days: out of 15 positions, only four were successful. His largest setback was a $4.9 million loss betting that Morocco would not win a match on July 4.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) July 6, 2026
In June, the account FlickRaw lost about $4.2 million in less than a day. Initially, he placed $2.7 million on the Netherlands to beat Japan — the match ended in a 2-2 draw. The next day, the trader bet $1.5 million on Belgium to win against Egypt — again, a draw.
8\
⚽️ FlickRaw’s 24hFlickRaw lost $4.2M in under 24 hours.
$2.7M on Netherlands over Japan was erased by an 88th-minute equalizer.
Then $1.5M on Belgium over Egypt was erased the next day by another draw. pic.twitter.com/OkQboFcm5y
— Sherif (@SherifDefi) July 19, 2026
User betoor619 bet nearly $1 million on Spain to beat Cabo Verde with a 92% probability — aiming for a potential profit of $85,000. The result was a scoreless draw, nullifying his investment.
Who Profited from the Championship
Major gains came from counter-positions against the favorites. The wallet fishalive turned about $400,000 into nearly $9 million betting against Spain in their match with Cabo Verde. He held contracts stating “Spain will not win” and a spread of +2.5 on the African team.
🚨BREAKING: Someone named “fishalive” put $400k on Spain NOT to win vs Cabo Verde at 9% odds...
This trade just cashed out $4,702,769.23 on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/Kvp6RsoQJO
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) June 15, 2026
According to Lookonchain, another trader made $9.24 million in a single day by correctly predicting all four outcomes. His largest position was $7.03 million betting that Iran would not beat New Zealand. The match ended in a 2-2 draw.
What an incredible #WorldCup bettor!
He made $9.24M in a single day, winning all 4 of his bets for a 100% win rate.
In the Iran vs. New Zealand match, he spent $7.03M betting that Iran would not win.
He was right — and made $7.34M from that bet alone!https://t.co/4hPgrIgYui pic.twitter.com/cpdU6II4zb
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 17, 2026
Polymarket Records
The market for the 2026 World Cup winner generated $4.3 billion — a record for a single event in Polymarket's history. The previous record was held by the 2024 U.S. presidential elections at $3.6 billion.
2026 World Cup Winner Market. Source: Polymarket.In June, the platform's trading volume reached $10.8 billion, also setting a historical high. Meanwhile, Kalshi's volume was $33 billion. In total, last month, the trading volumes in prediction markets exceeded $50 billion.
In the incomplete month of July, Polymarket processed transactions worth $5.8 billion, while Kalshi handled $25.3 billion.
Monthly trading volumes on Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Kalshi. Source: The Block.It is worth noting that in July, researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University identified signs of manipulation in the pricing of five-minute Bitcoin contracts on Polymarket.