Polymarket users faced $37 million in losses during the World Cup betting, with 66.7% of traders making incorrect predictions.
A staggering 66.7% of users on the prediction platform Polymarket experienced losses on bets regarding the winner of the recently concluded 2026 World Cup, as reported by on-chain analyst defioasis.eth.
Out of over 194,000 unique trading addresses involved in the World Cup champion prediction market, approximately 130,000 made incorrect predictions. While most losses were relatively small, with 114,000 addresses losing under $100 each, the distribution of profits was heavily skewed. Only a handful of users saw significant gains:
- Five accounts reported profits exceeding $1 million.
- More than 43 addresses lost over $100,000, contributing to total losses exceeding $15 million.
- 54 addresses earned over $100,000 each, totaling more than $22 million.
“Global events like the World Cup attract massive trading volumes and liquidity. However, the lion's share of profits ultimately goes to a few traders with stronger informational advantages and risk management,” defioasis.eth explained.
Final Match Details
The championship match, held on July 19 in New Jersey, saw Spain triumph over Argentina 1-0. Prior to the game, Polymarket traders estimated Spain's winning chances at around 58% compared to Argentina's 42%. The defeat was particularly devastating for one trader, known as gud.hl, who lost his entire deposit of $1.23 million after betting on Argentina through 28 transactions.
— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) July 20, 2026
This trader had unrealized profits of over $5 million at one point but failed to secure those gains before the final.
Impact of Draws on Betting Outcomes
Draws proved particularly costly throughout the tournament. One trader, coldsway, lost $11.6 million after only four of his fifteen bets were successful. His most significant loss was a $4.9 million bet against Morocco winning a match on July 4. Another trader, FlickRaw, lost $4.2 million in less than 24 hours due to unexpected draws in crucial matches.
— Sherif (@SherifDefi) July 19, 2026
Another user, betoor619, lost nearly $1 million betting on Spain to beat Cabo Verde, which ended in a draw.
Winning Strategies Amidst Losses
Profits primarily stemmed from counter-bets against favored teams. One trader, known as fishalive, turned $400,000 into nearly $9 million by betting against Spain's victory over Cabo Verde. Another trader reportedly made $9.24 million in a single day by successfully predicting all four outcomes of matches.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 17, 2026
Record Trading Volumes on Polymarket
The betting market for the 2026 World Cup generated a record $4.3 billion, surpassing the previous high of $3.6 billion set during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. In June, Polymarket's trading volume reached $10.8 billion, while Kalshi's volume was reported at $33 billion. As of July, Polymarket processed $5.8 billion in transactions.
However, researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University have flagged possible manipulation in the pricing of five-minute Bitcoin contracts on Polymarket.
