Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The views and analysis presented are his own and do not necessarily represent those of Decrypt. Check out our daily news show 'FOMO HOUR' that covers top stories and market movements.
Good morning!
Here are the key updates for today:
- Major cryptocurrencies are experiencing significant gains, with prices rising 5-7%; Bitcoin is at $85.7k; HYPE is at $94
- Leading altcoins are surging, with 25 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies increasing by 10% or more; SEI and SUI are leading the pack
- Kevin O’Leary predicts Bitcoin could hit $1 million if the quantum risk is effectively mitigated
- Hyperliquid tops on-chain protocols in weekly revenue, followed by Pump, Stonk, and Pons
- The Stonk ecosystem is thriving, pushing its valuation to $310 million and setting a new all-time high
💸 Kevin O’Leary Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $1 Million, With Conditions
At the Avalanche Summit, Kevin O’Leary showcased an $11 million Shohei Ohtani baseball card adorned with 110 carats of diamonds, using it as a metaphor for tokenization. He then elaborated on why he believes Bitcoin could reach $1 million, contingent upon the industry addressing an issue that is not yet a reality.
His key concern revolves around Q-Day, which refers to the moment a quantum computer could potentially create fraudulent signatures for Bitcoin wallets. Currently, such technology does not exist, with predictions for its arrival ranging from the early 2030s to possibly never. O’Leary notes that this uncertainty is the reason why large funds limit their Bitcoin investments to around 3%, treating it more like a speculative asset than a fundamental part of their portfolio. If developers can eliminate this uncertainty, that cap could be lifted.
O’Leary also revised his stance on Ethereum. Previously, he believed that holding Bitcoin and Ethereum would capture 97% of the cryptocurrency market's upside, as he anticipated widespread standardization on Ethereum. However, he now argues that this standardization has not occurred and likely will not, criticizing Ethereum for being neither fast enough nor secure enough. He suggests that various industries will select their own blockchain, and the first major exchange to adopt a particular blockchain for tokenization will see that token’s value soar, as it will become integral to all transactions.
This commentary comes at a pivotal time, following the SEC's approval of its Innovation Exemption for tokenized stocks last week, and ICE's consideration of Avalanche as a settlement layer for the NYSE’s upcoming trading system. O’Leary posits that crypto is evolving into the twelfth sector of the S&P, as it supports the other eleven sectors.
While O’Leary’s insights hold some merit, particularly regarding the quantum threat that could hinder Bitcoin's growth, opinions differ concerning Ethereum and tokenization. For instance, Robinhood has opted to build its services on Ethereum through Robinhood Chain (via Arbitrum), and tokenization is rapidly advancing across various crypto-native blockchains. While some firms may prefer to create their own chains, there will undoubtedly be significant winners in tokenization on existing platforms, with Ethereum still leading the charge.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies are performing well, up 5-7%; BTC +6% at $85.7k; ETH +6% at $2,735; SOL +9% at $119; HYPE +4% at $94; ZEC +6% at $1,521
- Top performing altcoins include SEI (27%), SUI (+27%), NEAR (+12%) and VVV (+14%); 25 altcoins from the top 100 have increased by 10% or more
- Oil is down 3% at $97; Gold is down 1% at $4,380
- Stock futures are showing positive trends as oil prices and bond yields decline; DOW +0.8%, Nasdaq +1%
- The CFTC has submitted a crypto prerule to the White House just two days after the Clarity Act was rejected, titled "Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets," indicating it plans to create a derivatives framework independently.
- Coinbase has filed with the CFTC to offer single-stock perpetual futures, starting with about 50 to 60 contracts including major stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia, under a 45-day review process ending November 2
- Visa is addressing the merchant-code loophole that allowed meme coin purchases to earn credit card rewards through Crossmint checkouts on Robinhood Wallet and Fomo, with the grace period concluding next week
- Zcash is aiming for NU7 on November 5, which will reduce block times from 75 seconds to 25, thus making shielded payments approximately three times faster, with at least 60% of transaction fees supporting mining rewards from 2031 onward
- Goldman Sachs and Citizens have identified Coinbase, Robinhood, and Circle as potential early beneficiaries of the SEC’s tokenized-stock exemption, due to their custody capabilities, tokenization infrastructure, and stablecoin settlement
- Gemini’s market valuation has dropped to around $753 million, down 80% from its IPO, raising questions about potential acquisition opportunities for its licenses, custody systems, and customer relationships
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $433 million in net inflows on Friday; ETH ETFs attracted $143 million; and SOL ETFs received $48 million
- Grayscale’s Zcash ETF will initiate a 3-for-1 forward split effective September 30, having garnered over $233 million since its launch on August 25 and nearing $890 million in total assets
Meme Coin Tracker
- Meme coin leaders showed strong performance, rising 5-10%; DOGE +10%, SHIB +7%, PEPE +8%, PENGU +8%, TRUMP +6%, SPX +11%
- Leaders on the Robinhood chain rebounded after a disappointing weekend; Pons increased by 8% to $420 million; AI rose by 20% to $280 million; Cashcat climbed by 23% to $180 million; Orbio surged by 70%, ZZZ increased by 80%, and Index grew by 15%, leading the top movers
- Top movers in Solana included Stamp (+600x), Zebra (+110x), and Rawr (+180%); Ansem rose by 20% to $169 million
- The Stonk ecosystem rallied with Stonk up 30% to $310 million, ZCAT increasing by 18% to $120 million, Knots up 33% to $24 million, Allinu up 30% to $20 million, and Nearkat soaring by 88% to $14 million
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Robinhood Chain has seen its daily fees drop by 97% from approximately $8 million to $230,000 between early September and September 16, while transaction volume decreased by just 32% and DEX volume increased by 5% to around $13 billion
- Hyperliquid led on-chain protocols in revenue for the past week, generating $15.1 million; Pump followed with $11.89 million, then Stonkfun with $5 million and Pons with $3.63 million
- Stonkfun has recorded three consecutive days of revenue exceeding $1.1 million since Friday and is on track for another strong day today
🚚 What is happening in NFTs?
- NFT market leaders remained largely stable; Punks were at 29.7 ETH, BAYC down 3% at 6.5 ETH, and Pudgy down 1% at 3.28 ETH
- Top movers included Identity MD (+49%), Mad Lads (+36%), and Kaoforms (+65%)
- Zksnarks dropped to a 0.7 ZEC floor from their initial 1.5 ZEC mint price during the first weekend of trading
- FWA rebounded 100% this week to $20 million following its v2 release, experiencing increased demand alongside their decaying Punks (one Punk sold for just 1.9 ETH over the weekend)