IonQ has stated that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 20,000 physical qubits would require about 26 days to breach the cryptography based on secp256k1.
The first complete, end-to-end fault-tolerant resource estimate for running Shor’s algorithm—the team used IonQ’s Walking Cat architecture to demonstrate how a specific application can be optimized for a trapped-ion quantum computer.
This work concludes that a… pic.twitter.com/5ONOVHWxww
— IonQ (@IonQ_Inc) September 8, 2026
At the same time, the company announced a contract worth $8.18 million aimed at protecting corporate data from quantum attacks.
20,000 Qubits Against secp256k1
IonQ researchers conducted a comprehensive resource assessment for executing Shor’s algorithm against secp256k1, the elliptic curve utilized in Bitcoin and various other cryptographic systems.
According to their calculations, solving the discrete logarithm problem would necessitate 19,397 physical qubits, 1,457 logical qubits, and nearly 39 million Toffoli logical gates. This setup would take approximately 25.7 days for a single attempt.
IonQ claims this is the first time such an estimate has been tailored to a specific quantum computer architecture, incorporating not only the algorithm but also the compiler, hardware architecture, and error correction system.
It is important to note that this is a resource estimate, not a demonstrated attack. IonQ links these requirements to its roadmap and anticipates the development of corresponding systems by around 2028.
Implications for Bitcoin
The potential threat does not stem from Bitcoin mining or its consensus mechanism, but rather from the cryptographic signatures on elliptic curves. A sufficiently powerful fault-tolerant quantum computer could deploy Shor’s algorithm to resolve the associated mathematical challenge.
IonQ emphasizes that its assessment primarily pertains to authentication and data integrity, rather than decrypting already intercepted information. The company also notes that post-quantum signature algorithms like ML-DSA and SLH-DSA are not vulnerable to this type of attack.
Emerging Business in Protection
On the same day, IonQ announced a partnership with Congruity360 for $8.18 million. Together, they will develop a quantum-resistant network infrastructure for corporate clients in the United States.
Congruity360 will integrate IonQ’s devices for post-quantum cryptography and quantum key distribution into its corporate data management platform. This includes Clavis QKD pairs and Solteris networking devices that will secure data during transmission between locations.
The solution targets companies in sectors such as finance, healthcare, insurance, defense, manufacturing, law, and higher education—industries where data often needs to be stored and secured over long periods.
As a reminder, in August, StarkWare developers executed the first quantum-resistant transaction on the Bitcoin mainnet.