Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt.
Good morning!
Here are the key updates for today:
- Major cryptocurrencies show slight gains as oil prices decline; BTC is priced at $64.6k
- PUMP leads altcoin movements this week, seeing a 26% increase as its unlock phase begins
- Hyperliquid is launching permissionless prediction markets, requiring 500k HYPE staked
- Michael Saylor criticizes BIP-110 as a “bad idea”
- Pudgy Penguins have debuted plushie toys at Target stores nationwide
🎲 Hyperliquid Launches Open Prediction Markets in HIP-4 Upgrade
Hyperliquid is making prediction markets accessible to all.
The exchange announced that a forthcoming enhancement in its HIP-4 upgrade, which brought “outcome trading” in May, will allow anyone to create a prediction market on the platform. Currently, these markets are fully managed by validators, but Hyperliquid aims to reduce the number of validator-operated markets to ideally fewer than ten annually, with the majority open to community participation. This feature will first be available on testnet before moving to mainnet.
To launch a market, users must stake 500,000 HYPE (approximately $30 million), a substantial deposit that can be forfeited if validators determine the market was poorly defined or inaccurately settled. In return, the market creator can earn up to 50% of the trading fees generated by that market. This model differs significantly from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where every market is defined by the platform itself.
This initiative comes at a crucial time, as prediction markets recently experienced their best summer performance. The World Cup contributed to the sector reaching $50 billion in wagers in June, with July already on track to surpass that figure ($37 billion recorded so far). Kalshi dominated the market with $33 billion (66% market share), while Hyperliquid managed only $176 million, indicating they have significant ground to cover to gain a foothold in the sector.
By adopting an open-source approach, Hyperliquid seeks to transform prediction markets into a permissionless primitive rather than a curated offering. They are not to be underestimated, as Hyperliquid has already set DEX volume records, prompted warnings from JPMorgan regarding its competition with Circle, and engaged with both the SEC and CFTC. If this permissionless model proves successful, it could enable them to make a substantial impact. We will see the results soon.
🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets
- Major cryptocurrencies finished the week positively, with BTC up by 3% to $64.6k; ETH increased by 6% to $1,885; SOL rose by 1% to $76.60; HYPE fell by 7% to $60.80
- PUMP (+28%), PI (+22%), and INJ (+10%) were the top gainers of the week
- Oil prices dropped by 4% to $80 amid progress in Iran negotiations; Gold increased by 1% to $4,024
- Stock futures are up as oil prices decline; DOW +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.7%
- Michael Saylor criticized Bitcoin's BIP-110 proposal as "a bad idea," arguing that the anti-spam initiative could establish a precedent for censorship and that "the proposed remedy is more perilous than the condition itself"
- Galaxy Digital secured a 15-year naming-rights agreement to rename Texas Tech’s football stadium to “Galaxy Stadium,” marking a continued expansion of crypto into college athletics
- Project Eleven introduced a method for users to verify wallet ownership even if quantum computers can derive private keys
- The GENIUS Act celebrated its one-year anniversary, with regulators having failed to meet their deadlines for rule-writing, though the framework will fully take effect by July 2028
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
- Bitcoin ETFs experienced $132 million in net inflows on Friday, concluding the week with $75 million in net inflows; ETH ETFs saw $37 million in inflows on Friday, ending with $105 million
Meme Coin Tracker
- Leading meme coins remained mostly stable or increased in value over the last week; DOGE remained flat, SHIB decreased by 1%, PEPE rose by 5%, PENGU increased by 4%, TRUMP gained 1%, and BONK fell by 23%
- Robinhood chain was led by Stonkbroker (+180%), REAL (+200x), and FOX (+70%); Cashcat rose by 22% to $72 million
- Solana tokens included AVA (+30%) and Cubeman (+85%); ANSEM increased by 5% to $198 million
💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
- Pump.fun’s PUMP token is among the top altcoin movers, rising by 26% this week as its unlock phase commences
- Allbridge, a cross-chain protocol, suspended operations after a $1.65 million flash loan exploit manipulated its Solana pool ratios, marking the latest incident in a series of DeFi attacks
🚚 NFT Developments
- NFT market leaders showed slight declines; Punks remained at 32 ETH, BAYC fell by 2% to 8.65 ETH, Pudgy decreased by 5% to 4.06 ETH; Hypurr remained stable at 188 HYPE
- Top movers included Stonkbrokers (+125%) and Funkari (+30%)
- Pudgy Penguins officially launched their plush toys in Target stores across the United States