Looking Ahead to August 1, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 31, 2026, 11:36 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on After a strong July, sentiment is shifting to a bearish outlook for August. (Yorgos Ntrahas/Unsplash)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
As July comes to a close, a significant change is evident in the options market. The $60,000 bitcoin BTC$63,760.05 put option, which serves as a hedge against price declines, has emerged as the most sought-after option on Deribit, the leading cryptocurrency options exchange. Currently, this put option boasts a notional open interest totaling $1.17 billion.
Investors typically purchase put options to safeguard against potential market downturns. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, dipped below the $60,000 mark late last month but subsequently rebounded to over $63,000 in recent days.
Interestingly, prior to yesterday, call options, which are bets on price increases, at strike prices of $70,000 and $72,000 were the most favored, each with a notional open interest of $2.5 billion. This popularity stemmed from a surge in call option purchases leading up to the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday, with some traders anticipating a spike in price to $72,000 following the central bank's interest rate announcement.
However, that anticipated price surge did not materialize, likely prompting traders to close their positions during the expiration of options on Friday at 08:00 UTC, which settled BTC and ether (ETH) options worth $10 billion. The notional open interest for the $70,000 call has now decreased to $943 million, while the $72,000 call has dropped to $888 million. Although these figures remain substantial, they are significantly lower than the $60,000 put option's open interest.
Another noteworthy observation relates to seasonal trends. Historically, July has yielded a median return of 8.61% since 2013. This July's performance aligns with this trend, reflecting an 8.9% increase, according to CoinDesk data. However, a positive July is frequently followed by a negative August, which has a median return of -7.51%.
The median provides a clearer picture of typical outcomes, as it is less affected by extreme gains or losses that can skew averages. In volatile markets like bitcoin, where occasional dramatic fluctuations can distort the mean, the median often presents a more accurate reflection of historical performance.
This suggests a bearish sentiment for BTC as we approach August. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For insights on today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a detailed list of upcoming events this week, check out CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
Trending Now
- Major bitcoin wallet flaw drains 594 BTC in 25-minute sweep (CoinDesk): Approximately 594 bitcoin, valued at around $38 million, was extracted from nearly 500 wallets on Friday due to a vulnerability in the way Coldcard hardware wallets generated their keys.
- Treasury yields decline alongside oil prices as investors await new economic data (CNBC): U.S. Treasury yields followed oil prices lower amid indications of a recovery in crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and optimism regarding reduced tensions in the Middle East.
- South Korea’s Kospi index surges nearly 18% driven by chipmaking stocks (AP): The Kospi index in South Korea experienced a significant jump on Friday, mirroring gains on Wall Street as AI-related stocks rebounded after earlier losses in the week. U.S. stock index futures also rose while oil prices declined.
Today's Signal
BTC's options open interest distribution (Deribit)The chart illustrates the distribution of notional open interest in bitcoin options across various strike price levels and expiration dates.
Notional open interest indicates the dollar value of active or open contracts, with each contract representing one BTC.
The $60,000 put option has taken the lead with an open interest of $1.17 billion, while the previous front-runners, the $70,000 and $72,000 calls, have fallen in ranking.
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