Your day-ahead look for Aug. 12, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback54 min ago3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The Department of Labor Statistics is set to release July inflation data. (Department of Labor)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
The spotlight on Wednesday shines on XRP (XRP), a cryptocurrency tailored for payments. Earlier today, a bridge to the XRP Ledger suffered an exploit, and the token's price is lingering near a critical threshold that could invite bearish activity.
This critical level is set at $1. After dipping to 99 cents on certain exchanges on Tuesday, XRP quickly bounced back but appears to have stalled around $1.02. It has notably lagged behind both bitcoin and the overall market recovery in recent days.
Additionally, XRP futures open interest has surged to 2.67 billion XRP (approximately $2.73 billion), marking the highest level since October, up from 2.25 billion XRP at the beginning of the month. This increase in leverage amidst XRP's current pricing suggests a likelihood of increased volatility.
This enhances XRP's susceptibility compared to other leading cryptocurrencies like bitcoin BTC$64,201.63, ether ETH$1,914.13, and solana (SOL) ahead of the U.S. CPI report scheduled for later today. If the inflation figure exceeds expectations, it could bolster predictions of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and elevate already-elevated Treasury yields, presenting challenges for risk assets.
Estimates indicate a 0.1% month-on-month rise in the headline CPI for July, an increase from June's –0.4% figure. The year-on-year CPI is projected to be 3.4%, a slight decrease from 3.5%, while annual core CPI inflation is anticipated to drop to 2.5% from 2.6%.
ING has noted that a weaker-than-expected CPI could lead to a decline in the dollar, which would potentially benefit the cryptocurrency market.
Traders are hoping that the report could push bitcoin's price out of its recent $62,000 to $66,000 trading range. However, current pricing of BTC options indicates low expectations for significant market movements following the CPI release.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, mentioned that the market is anticipating a post-CPI price shift of merely 1.3%, which is considered unremarkable.
Laevitas, a data tracking site, echoed this sentiment: “7d ATM IV [implied volatility] has contracted to 29.1v on BTC and 41.2v on ETH even as a binary July print lands inside the weekly window, suggesting the term structure is declining to reflect the event risk directly on the tape,” Laevitas stated on X.
The low expectations could potentially set the stage for a surprising market reaction, whether the inflation figures beat or miss forecasts. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive overview of this week's events, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- One overlooked group has added $1.78 billion of selling pressure to bitcoin market (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s 27% price decline this year is not solely attributed to ETFs and digital asset treasuries. Public miners have emerged as an underappreciated source of supply impacting the market.
- XRP bridge drained for $200,000 after software mistook fake deposits for real ones (CoinDesk): An XRP bridge lost nearly 200,000 XRP, valued at about $200,000, due to a software error that allowed an attacker to withdraw real tokens against fictitious deposits.
- Here's what bitcoin and ether traders are doing ahead of the binary U.S. CPI print (CoinDesk): If July's U.S. consumer price index exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may consider a rate hike in September. Traders are adjusting their positions ahead of the data release, with some opting for upside exposure while others focus on increased volatility.
Today’s signal
XRP's price chart. (TradingView)The provided chart illustrates XRP’s weekly price movements in candlestick format since 2023.
The token reached a peak above $3.50 in July of last year but has been on a declining trend since. Currently, it is trading close to $1, and a drop below this level would mark the first occurrence since November 2024, when Donald Trump won the presidential election.
If this occurs, the July 2023 high of 92 cents, where buying momentum waned, could serve as support. Should that support fail, the next potential support level is anticipated to be around 50 cents.
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