The 30-day and 365-day MVRV for the token, which gauges how much holders are losing, are currently around -45% and -47%, respectively, marking unprecedented lows according to Santiment. Some traders interpret these significant losses as a contrarian indicator.
By Shaurya Malwa Jul 4, 2026, 7:08 a.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShow- Onchain analytics reveal that XRP holders are experiencing unprecedented unrealized losses, with both 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios hovering around -45% to -47%, indicating significant pain for both recent and long-term investors.
- Santiment, the analytics firm, notes that this capitulation phase may present a favorable risk-reward entry point, though it clarifies that this is not a price prediction and XRP could still decline if the overall market weakens.
- Despite the low MVRV metrics, XRP has appreciated by around 8% in the last week to about $1.14, suggesting that selling pressure from holders with losses may be diminishing as traders observe if new buyers continue to enter the market.
XRP holders are currently experiencing more significant unrealized losses than ever before, based on onchain data that some traders view as a contrarian indicator of a potential floor.
This data comes from the MVRV, or market value to realized value, which compares XRP's current price to the average price at which its supply last changed hands.
When the MVRV is below zero, it indicates that the average holder is at a loss. Currently, the 30-day MVRV is approximately -45%, while the 365-day version stands at around -47%, placing both recent buyers and those who have held for a year in a challenging position.
These figures represent the lowest levels recorded in XRP's history, as reported by Santiment in a Friday update.
This scenario reflects a capitulation phase, where holders endure substantial unrealized losses and weaker investors sell their assets to those willing to purchase. Santiment emphasizes that this situation represents a risk-reward opportunity rather than a price forecast.
"The most favorable setups often arise when the market sentiment is at its lowest," the firm stated, suggesting that the existing downside has been largely absorbed, making further additions less risky, while cautioning that prices may still drop if the overall market falters.
XRP has gained value even with these low readings. The token has increased about 8% over the past week, reaching around $1.14, according to CoinDesk data, marking it as one of the stronger performers among major cryptocurrencies this week.
This aligns with a trend observed by onchain analysts, who have noted that large bitcoin wallets are accumulating despite record ETF outflows, indicating a capitulation-and-absorption pattern that is more common near cycle lows than at market peaks.
However, this does not confirm a market bottom. The MVRV merely indicates the extent of current losses and does not signal a turning point, as prolonged losses can persist while the market remains stagnant or declines further.
The current metrics suggest that the selling pressure from those with losses is mostly exhausted, and traders should monitor whether new buyers continue to emerge.
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