Summary
- XRP is currently trading around $1.00, maintaining a crucial price point since Trump’s 2024 victory.
- Bearish signals are evident on the daily chart, with the weekly chart showing convergence.
- XRP is in oversold territory; could it provide a rebound for investors?
The cryptocurrency market is navigating what appears to be a prolonged bear phase, with no clear bottom visible. Bitcoin has dropped over 3% this week and remains under $64,000, while Ethereum is struggling to stay above $1,900, with traders still questioning when this downturn will conclude.
In contrast, Wall Street is experiencing a different Monday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are nearing recent peaks, buoyed by AI stocks which received a boost following a Bloomberg report highlighting Anthropic's quarterly revenue of $11.5 billion, as the company engages with banks regarding a potential IPO.
Myriad: What’s next for XRP? Make your prediction here.The overall crypto market is starting the week relatively flat, with most top 10 cryptocurrencies fluctuating less than 2%. For XRP, this stability is noteworthy given the aggressive bear market conditions.
XRP's performance: Defending the dollar for the 635th consecutive day
Today, XRP has seen a slight increase of 1.11%, currently trading around $1.0046 after opening at $0.9935 and hitting an intraday low of $0.9882. Although minor, this bounce is significant.
Since November 2024, XRP has consistently closed above $1, marking a streak that reached 635 days as of last week, nearly breaking twice this month.
Recent concerns arose from a bridge exploit that siphoned approximately $200,000 through a connection between the TX Chain and the XRP Ledger, causing XRP to dip below $1 on August 11 and August 14. However, buyers returned before the daily close in both instances. This week, XRP reached $0.9862, a level last seen just before the November 2024 rally—dubbed the “Trump pump” due to its timing with Trump's reelection—which propelled it to an all-time high of roughly $3.65.
On the daily chart, the technical indicators reflect damage. XRP's 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently below its 200-day EMA. EMAs help smooth price fluctuations, and when a shorter-term average falls below a longer-term average, traders identify this as a death cross, indicating that sellers have dominated the short to medium-term trend for several weeks.
Examining the weekly chart reveals a more concerning situation. XRP's 50-week EMA remains above its 200-week EMA, indicating that the golden cross structure supporting the post-election rally is still intact. However, this gap has been narrowing for months, and the weekly Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 33.7, signifying a strong trend, albeit in a negative direction for XRP holders.
A prolonged decline in the shorter-term EMA approaching the longer-term EMA is interpreted by traders as a warning of an impending cross, not mere coincidence.
On the daily charts, the ADX is at 21.8, just below the critical 25 level that indicates strong conviction. This suggests that while the decline is genuine, it is not particularly severe at this moment. The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate that XRP has yet to reclaim its minor retracement level at $1.0281, with the so-called golden zone between $1.0754 and $1.0965 still a considerable distance away.
The calendar is also unhelpful. The Senate has adjourned for a five-week August recess without voting on the Clarity Act, pushing the next potential vote for the crypto market structure bill to September 15. In the same week, the SEC unexpectedly canceled its own vote on new fundraising rules for crypto startups, citing scheduling conflicts.
The bearish sentiment is so strong that Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has reduced his 2026 XRP price target from $8 to $2.80. Reports indicate that whales have acquired approximately 380 million XRP near the $1 mark over the past week, but they have done so alongside $1.5 billion in newly opened leveraged long positions, which could amplify any break below $1 into a more severe downturn if forced liquidations occur.
Key resistance levels are noted around $1.07–$1.09 (golden zone), with $1.1264 (78.6% Fibonacci level) if momentum continues. For support, $0.98 is this week’s low, while $0.9061 represents major support, the closest to the $1 level.
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed by the author are intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or other advice.