Summary
- XRP is currently priced at $1.06, reflecting a nearly 8% decline over the last week.
- This decline coincides with the U.S. Senate's decision to set aside the Clarity Act before its August recess, as global markets prepare for the Federal Reserve's rate decision on July 29.
- Technical indicators for XRP show a predominantly bearish outlook: a confirmed death cross, an RSI of 40.9, negative Squeeze momentum, and a composite score of -63%. The only positive aspect is that XRP is significantly oversold.
The macroeconomic environment remains challenging for cryptocurrency markets this year.
New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is anticipated to maintain rates between 3.50% and 3.75% in his second FOMC meeting, although CME FedWatch indicated a 38% chance of a rate hike as of the previous weekend—the highest probability seen in this cycle. Even a hawkish stance could unsettle risk assets. Bitcoin is trading around $63,400–$64,000, significantly lower than its June highs of approximately $80,000, and altcoins are experiencing heavier losses.
XRP, the cryptocurrency created by the founders of Ripple, had seen a brief moment of hope earlier this month, which now seems far away. As reported by Decrypt on July 21, XRP rose by 3.25% to $1.1485 when news emerged that President Donald Trump had agreed to the long-delayed ethics provision of the Clarity Act, briefly increasing Senate passage odds on Polymarket to 43%. However, this optimism was short-lived.
On Monday, the Senate officially shelved the Clarity Act to focus on a sanctions bill against Russia and federal nominations. With the Senate's August recess beginning around August 7, the window for the bill's approval this year is narrow. If missed, the next chance may not arise until 2027.
The implications for XRP are significant: the Clarity Act would legally establish its classification as a commodity, providing the necessary legal framework that institutional custodians, banks, and ETF issuers need to create related products. Standard Chartered's conditional target of $8 for XRP—dependent on the bill's passage and $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF investments—remains hypothetical without this legislation.
Consequently, the outlook for both the Clarity Act and XRP appears bleak.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP is trading at $1.0641 with a market capitalization of approximately $65 billion on Binance, having reached a low of $1.0450 and a high of $1.0679 in the last 24 hours. The token previously peaked at around $3.40 in mid-2025 and has been trapped in a persistent downward trend, recording lower highs and lower lows for several months.
XRP price data. Image: TradingviewThe Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 11.2—one of the weakest readings for XRP this summer. The ADX measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, regardless of direction. A reading below 25 indicates no confirmed trend, while sub-20 readings suggest a choppy market prone to false breakouts and stop hunts.
As highlighted by Decrypt on July 16, when the ADX was at 13.3, XRP has been stuck in this trendless state for most of July. One slightly positive signal is that the directional indicator is starting to shift from DI- (bearish dominance) to DI+ (indicating potential bullish pressure). So there is a glimmer of hope amidst the gloom.
The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which help smooth out price action over time to clarify trend direction, confirm the overall bearish trend: the 50-day EMA is currently below the 200-day EMA, forming a death cross. This configuration suggests that the medium-term trajectory remains downward, even with potential short-term rebounds. This pattern has persisted since XRP's decline from its all-time high of $3.65, with no indication yet of convergence between the two averages.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.9. The RSI measures momentum on a scale from 0 to 100: values above 70 indicate overbought conditions, while those below 30 suggest oversold conditions. At 40.9, XRP is in bearish territory—below the neutral 50 mark—but not at levels typically attracting aggressive buyers seeking a price floor.
According to Fibonacci analysis (natural levels of support and resistance during a trend), the current bearish movement spans from $1.1646 down to $1.0450. If XRP drops below this level, the next Fibonacci support is at $1.0125, followed by $0.9711.
Future Outlook
Two key events will dictate XRP's next directional movement. If Fed Chair Warsh maintains rates and adopts a dovish tone—or hints at potential cuts in September—crypto markets could experience a relief rally, allowing XRP to test the Fibonacci golden zone between $1.10 and $1.12. Conversely, if the statement is hawkish or a dissenting vote occurs, the sell-off could extend towards $1.01, and possibly down to the $0.97 level.
The Clarity Act remains a crucial long-term factor. With the Senate's August recess starting August 7, if a floor vote does not happen before then, XRP's main institutional catalyst will disappear until at least late 2026, or potentially longer due to the subsequent midterm election cycle.
The technical indicators suggest a cautious approach rather than urgency. In a market characterized by weak trends—evidenced by the ADX at 11.2, negative Squeeze momentum, and the ongoing death cross—consolidation can persist longer than many traders might anticipate before a resolution. The oversold conditions could lead to a short-term rebound, but without a macroeconomic trigger or unexpected legislative developments, such a rebound is more likely to be a selling opportunity than the beginning of a new upward trend.
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed by the author are solely for informational purposes and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.