Summary
- Bernstein forecasts that the 2026 World Cup could generate up to $10 billion in betting and prediction market trading activity.
- The investment firm views the tournament as a pivotal event for the prediction markets and sports betting sectors.
- Both Robinhood and Coinbase are leveraging the World Cup to boost their prediction market initiatives, according to Bernstein.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off Thursday in North America, and while fans are eager to watch the matches, financial analysts are anticipating a significant influx of funds into sportsbooks and prediction markets over the month-long event.
With 104 matches planned in the newly expanded format of 48 teams, which offers about 60% more betting opportunities than previous tournaments, Bernstein's analysts predict an additional $3 billion in handling and a total consumer volume increase of up to $10 billion across sports betting and prediction markets.
This remarkable projection comes during a period typically regarded as the slowest for online sports betting. Bernstein described the World Cup as a "potential watershed moment" for prediction markets and sports betting platforms, suggesting that it could enhance the momentum seen with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket and spur future growth.
“Predictions are already trending upwards ahead of the first match: DraftKings reported this week that its annualized consumer volume in May surged 24% month-over-month to $1.3 billion, while total volume traded increased by 34% to $3.1 billion, continuing a significant upward trend over the past three months,” the analysts noted.
“We have consistently maintained that prediction markets offer a new avenue for monetizing sports engagement instead of posing a threat to traditional sportsbooks (akin to TikTok versus Napster),” they continued. “Kalshi and Polymarket have quickly gained traction, mainly in states like California, Texas, Georgia, and Florida, but we believe the World Cup presents a chance for others to enhance customer acquisition in what is expected to be a trillion-dollar market by 2030.”
Robinhood is set to officially launch Rothera, its CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange, during this event, while Coinbase, which noted it achieved over $100 million in annualized revenue from prediction markets within two months of launching in early 2026, is providing World Cup contracts via its partnership with Kalshi.
On Myriad—a prediction market platform run by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt—participants currently predict Spain has an 18% chance of winning the World Cup, closely followed by France at 17%.