Willy Woo, an analyst, predicts that the end of Bitcoin's bear market is most likely in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a return to bullish momentum expected in the first half of 2027.

This bearish sell down by investors seems to have exhausted, which gives price a reprieve to consolidate sideways for maybe a month, even a rebound to mid 70s, which would likely be rejected.

This is because the broader regime is heavily bearish with both spot and futures… pic.twitter.com/MAUlmBJtbE

— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026

He noted a general deterioration in the asset's situation due to liquidity exhaustion in both spot and futures markets. In such scenarios, the leading cryptocurrency has never shown growth.

Woo believes that the potential minimum in the current cycle is around $45,000.

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has existed in a bullish market for the global economy, the expert pointed out. He suggested that if another global crisis occurs, the support level for digital gold would be $30,000, with a "last line" of hope for recovery at $10,000.

CryptoQuant identified the period from September to December of this year as the most likely timeframe for reaching the cycle's bottom, aligning with Woo's forecast. The company's specialists referred to the structure of previous historical periods.

Bottoms take time.

If this cycle mirrors past structures from April 19, 2024:

2012 trace (777 days) → June 4, 2026 • 2016 trace (889 days) → September 24, 2026 • 2020 trace (925 days) → October 30, 2026.

That puts the broader timing window in June–December 2026.… pic.twitter.com/8w5WzgGNXb

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 26, 2026

Institutions Skeptical About Quick Growth

Woo suggested that Bitcoin prices may continue to consolidate sideways for the next month. A breakout above $70,000 is possible, but he added that the price is unlikely to hold at that level.

Jean-David Piquet, Chief Commercial Officer at the derivatives exchange Deribit, noted in an interview with CoinDesk that large investors in BTC-ETFs and DAT companies are actively increasing their positions in put options priced at $60,000. These contracts, expiring in six months to a year, serve as a hedge against the coin's price falling below this level.

The open interest volume in such positions has reached $1.5 billion, the highest compared to other cohorts by price and expiration dates.

“30-day put options are still trading at a volatility premium of about 7% compared to call options, indicating that 'smart money' continues to pay more for insurance against declines rather than chasing asset growth,” Piquet added.

Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, confirmed in a comment to The Block that traders hold significant positions in put options priced at $55,000-$60,000. He estimates that bears expect any potential drop not to exceed this range.

The highest open interest on Derive is observed in call options at $80,000-$90,000, expiring on March 27. This concentration indicates that bulls are preparing for a price recovery in this range within the month, Dawson noted.

The analyst believes that the data collectively suggests attempts by the market to form a base and cautious optimism among traders.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $65,500, having lost about 1.5% in the last 24 hours.  

For reference, in February, Bloomberg Intelligence's senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone reiterated his forecast of a potential drop for the leading cryptocurrency to $10,000, citing macroeconomic factors.