Willy Woo forecasts Bitcoin's bear market may last until late 2026, with institutional investors showing caution towards rapid recovery.
Analyst Willy Woo forecasts that Bitcoin's bear market will likely extend until the fourth quarter of 2026, with a potential bullish resurgence anticipated in the first half of 2027.
The current bearish sell-off appears to have run its course, allowing for a possible month-long price consolidation. A rebound to the mid-$70,000 range is conceivable, but it may face rejection due to the prevailing bearish trend in both spot and futures markets.
This indicates the broader market sentiment remains heavily negative.
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) February 27, 2026
Woo highlighted a worsening situation for Bitcoin, attributing it to liquidity exhaustion across both spot and futures markets, which historically has not led to price recovery for the leading cryptocurrency.
He posits that the minimum price for this cycle could settle around $45,000, with significant support at $30,000 if a global crisis emerges. Woo cautioned that a drastic drop could see Bitcoin plummet to $10,000.
CryptoQuant has pinpointed the period from September to December 2026 as the likely timeframe for hitting the cycle's bottom, aligning with Woo's analysis. They referenced historical patterns to substantiate this prediction.
Bottom formations require time. If this cycle mirrors past trends from April 19, 2024, the broader timing window extends from June to December 2026.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 26, 2026
Institutional Hesitance on Rapid Growth
Woo anticipates Bitcoin prices may continue to move sideways, with a brief surge above $70,000 possible, though he doubts its sustainability.
Jean-David Piquet, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, remarked that institutional investors are increasingly purchasing put options at the $60,000 mark, which serve as a hedge against potential declines. These options, expiring in six months to a year, have amassed an open interest volume of $1.5 billion, the highest among similar contracts.
“The 30-day put options are trading at a volatility premium of about 7% compared to call options, suggesting that savvy investors prioritize protection against downturns rather than pursuing growth,” Piquet noted.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, confirmed that traders are heavily positioned in put options ranging from $55,000 to $60,000, indicating that bears do not expect significant drops below this range. The most considerable open interest on Derive is in call options priced at $80,000-$90,000, set to expire on March 27, indicating bullish sentiment among some traders.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $65,500, reflecting a 1.5% decline in the past 24 hours. Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone recently reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 amid adverse macroeconomic conditions.
