Your day-ahead look for Aug. 18, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback38 min ago3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Increased demand for diesel during harvest season. (aboutmoments33/Shutterstock)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
On Monday, CoinDesk reported that Goldman Sachs had reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates in September, attributing this to slower inflation in line with dovish sentiments from traders, which could benefit Bitcoin BTC$64,275.27.
However, new data is complicating this perspective.
The first notable detail is the disparity between diesel prices and the crude oil costs that generate it. This difference, referred to as the "crack," has soared to an unprecedented $102.20 per barrel.
Ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine are disrupting global oil supplies, exacerbating the crack just as seasonal demand increases due to farmers needing fuel for harvesting. This situation has significant implications for inflation in everyday life.
"Food prices are on the verge of rising significantly," stated the Hormuz Letter, a popular account on X that focuses on Middle Eastern and commodity news. "Agriculture relies heavily on diesel machinery and shipping; heating oil will become crucial ahead of winter, and all goods transported by truck or ship will contribute to rising inflation."
Macro analyst Mike "Mish" Shedlock was even more direct, declaring, "Record high crack spreads have serious economic consequences."
The key takeaway is that while oil prices have declined from their peaks in the second quarter, the expenses related to oil products are climbing. This trend may not yet be fully reflected in the broader market, including Bitcoin.
Another point to consider is that crude oil could be poised for a rebound. After a four-month bearish trend, crude prices are recovering (as noted in the Daily Signal), and disruptions in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz persist.
These factors, along with rising concerns about government debt, are driving yields on U.S. Treasuries and other bonds in advanced economies higher. This increase raises the opportunity cost of holding alternative assets, potentially limiting Bitcoin's growth, as CoinDesk has recently pointed out.
Nonetheless, one aspect remains favorable for Bitcoin at the moment: the value of the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index dipped to a two-and-a-half-month low of 99.29 on Monday and broke below a bullish trendline, indicating further potential declines. Historically, a weaker dollar tends to create a more supportive environment for Bitcoin.
In summary, the current environment presents a complex situation for Bitcoin, caught in various narratives that are pulling it in different directions. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activities, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of significant events this week, refer to CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- Global bond yields reach multi-decade highs as governments face pressure from U.S.-Iran tensions (CNBC): A worldwide selloff of government bonds impacted markets on Tuesday, pushing borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades as hopes for peace in the Middle East dwindled.
- The critical Bitcoin price level that could challenge leveraged bulls (CoinDesk): For traders with bullish futures positions, $57,000 is a crucial threshold where their investments could be jeopardized.
- XRP drops below $1 for the first time since 2024 despite a Korean bank adopting Ripple Payments (CoinDesk): XRP fell to 98 cents on Tuesday morning in Asia, marking its lowest price since November 2024, coinciding with Ripple's announcement of its third partnership in Korea this year.
Today’s signal
Daily candlestick chart of WTI crude oil. (TradingView)The chart illustrates daily fluctuations in WTI crude oil in candlestick form.
Prices have surpassed the trendline established from the April high, indicating an end to the four-month downtrend.
This breakout suggests potential price increases ahead, which could reignite inflation concerns, thereby limiting Bitcoin's gains.
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