The U.S. administration has warned employees against using non-public information for trading on financial markets following suspicious transactions linked to geopolitical events. This was reported by Reuters.
Trigger: Trades Before Iran Statements
According to the agency, an internal notice was sent out on March 24 after a series of unusually precise trades in the oil market. These involved bets totaling around $500 million on Brent and WTI futures, placed just minutes before Donald Trump's statement on Iran the previous day. Following the announcement of a halt to U.S. strikes, crude prices dropped by about 15%.
This timing raised suspicions of potential insider trading.
As a recent example, Reuters cited a $950 million oil position taken just hours before the ceasefire announcement between Iran and the U.S. on Tuesday, April 7.
“While he [Trump] seeks a strong and profitable stock market for all, members of Congress and other public officials should be prohibited from using insider information for financial gain,” a White House representative stated in response to the agency's inquiry.
Focus on Prediction Markets
The situation has also drawn attention to prediction platforms like Polymarket, where users bet on the outcomes of political and military events, as reported by Cointelegraph.
Analysts estimate that some traders may have earned around $1 million by accurately predicting the timing of potential U.S. actions.
This has heightened concerns that participants with access to confidential information might exploit such platforms for profit. In response to the incident, three bills have been introduced in the U.S. Congress. The proposed measures include:
- a ban on government officials participating in prediction market trades;
- stricter oversight of insider information usage;
- increased transparency of operations.
It is worth noting that U.S. tax experts have differing opinions on how users of prediction platforms should pay taxes on their winnings.