Large holders have transitioned from accumulating the first cryptocurrency to distributing it, a trend that appears to be long-term, according to analysts at CryptoQuant.
Whales have flipped from buyers to sellers.
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 1, 2026
1K–10K BTC holders are now distributing, with 1Y holdings at -188K BTC after +200K accumulation in 2024.
This isn’t short-term. The 365D trend is declining, signaling structural selling pressure. pic.twitter.com/2Y4hwwVgnI
According to specialists, over the past year, addresses holding between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC have reduced their reserves by 188,000 BTC. In comparison, they accumulated 200,000 BTC in 2024. The annual trend is downward, indicating systemic selling pressure from sellers.
“The pace accelerated sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025. Historically, sustained negative accumulation by whales has coincided with prolonged price weakness, and current data indicates that sales remain a significant structural headwind,” experts noted.
Institutional purchases have resumed, with Strategy accumulating, but retail investors and other market participants continue to sell. Visible demand at the end of March was negative — down 63,000 BTC. This confirms that the market remains in a distribution phase, limiting the growth of the first cryptocurrency.
Another layer of support is also fading: average investors, who previously increased their positions, are now buying more slowly.
At the same time, demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. is declining. The Coinbase premium index has turned negative: American investors are no longer driving the price of digital gold higher.
Possible Rebound
In March, Bitcoin broke a five-month streak of declines, gaining 2.2%. This occurred despite the war in Iran raising energy prices and inflating expectations, which negatively impacted other risk assets.
However, the cryptocurrency remains about 45% below its October peak of $126,000. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $66,400.
CryptoQuant suggests a market rebound could occur in the short term. However, this would require improved macro conditions, primarily a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
“A reduction in geopolitical tensions could serve as a positive catalyst, potentially triggering a 'relief' rally,” analysts concluded.
Extreme Uncertainty
On April 1, signs emerged that the war in Iran might be coming to an end. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Tehran had requested a ceasefire from the United States. The prospect of ending the conflict encouraged investors and positively impacted prices. However, Iranian authorities immediately denied the politician's claims.
Hours later, Trump addressed the nation, promising to "hit Iran hard." Following these comments, U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and the S&P 500 lost $500 billion in market capitalization within minutes. The shock also spread to the digital asset sector.
According to analyst Darkfost, the volume of Ethereum-based derivatives sales exceeded $1 billion, with $968 million occurring on Binance alone.
🔴 $1B in ETH selling hits derivatives in 1 hour After Trump’s speech.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 2, 2026
While markets around the world were expecting a de-escalation speech from Donald Trump regarding the conflict with Iran, his remarks went in a completely different direction.
Instead, Trump made it clear… pic.twitter.com/nz6kIK1Clw
This led to a nearly 5% correction in the leading altcoin over the past day. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $2,000.
“Overall, financial markets are currently facing a period of extreme uncertainty and volatility, making price action increasingly unstable and unpredictable,” noted Darkfost.
Positive Signal
Activity on cryptocurrency exchanges has returned to levels that historically marked structural market resets. The Fund Flow Ratio has contracted to ~0.065, stated CryptoQuant researcher Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.
Exchange Activity Is Back at Reset Levels — Or Losing Relevance?
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 2, 2026
“If it breaks materially below prior support, then this time the contraction would look less like a healthy reset and more like a deeper deterioration in market engagement.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/lsOijUgqVB
Historically, this zone has repeatedly served as a "market restructuring level" during broader bull cycles: in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023.
In each previous instance when the 30-day Fund Flow Ratio fell to similar levels, Bitcoin either completed a correction or went through a consolidation phase followed by growth.
Notably, analysts at Glassnode pointed to the stagnation of the first cryptocurrency. They stated that a catalyst is needed for a trend change in the market.