Your day-ahead look for July 2, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 2, 2026, 11:47 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could influence Bitcoin's trajectory. (Department of Labor)SummaryShowThis excerpt is taken from CoinDesk's 'Daybook' newsletter. Subscribe here if you haven't yet.
The investment strategy of shifting funds from fiat currencies such as the dollar to tangible assets with limited availability, like bitcoin BTC$61,240.22 and gold, may be gaining traction if the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released Thursday aligns with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent comments on inflation.
On Wednesday, Warsh indicated that the risks associated with inflation have diminished. This statement led to a rapid reevaluation of potential Fed interest rate hikes, resulting in a rebound for both the leading cryptocurrency and gold. Bitcoin has surpassed $61,000, while gold has stabilized above $4,050 after dipping to $3,942 earlier this week.
These emerging recovery trends could gain momentum if the jobs report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, reveals significant weaknesses in the labor market. Analysts predict an increase of 110,000 jobs for June, down from 172,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to rise slightly to 3.5% from 3.4%.
Weaker labor market figures would suggest reduced income for workers, typically leading to lower consumer spending and diminished demand-pull inflation. This would support Warsh’s perspective, lessen the justification for aggressive Fed rate hikes, and exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Given the current bullish positioning in the dollar and rates markets that appears skewed, a disappointing payroll report could prompt a swift rebound in the Dollar Index (DXY), providing a favorable environment for bitcoin and gold.
Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, particularly regarding wages, the rally could quickly lose momentum. Remain vigilant!
For insights on today's altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full schedule of events this week, check CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- OpenAI considers offering the Trump administration a 5% equity stake (FT)
The developer of ChatGPT is reportedly exploring ways to provide a 5% equity stake to the U.S. government to enhance ties with the Trump administration and ensure broader access to AI benefits. - Stock futures remain stable as July trading begins; jobs report on the horizon: Live updates (CNBC): U.S. stock futures showed little movement as investors awaited crucial employment data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- Metaplanet invests an additional $170 million in bitcoin, increasing its treasury to 43,000 BTC (CoinDesk): Metaplanet (3350) has acquired an additional 2,823 BTC ($170.7 million), raising its total treasury to 43,000 BTC ($2.6 billion).
- Robinhood introduces a public blockchain as it deepens its crypto involvement (CoinDesk): Robinhood Chain is a layer-2 blockchain based on Arbitrum (ARB), marking a significant step for the company into on-chain financial infrastructure beyond its brokerage services and into decentralized finance.
Today’s signal
BTC's daily chart with the RSI. (TradingView)The chart illustrates bitcoin's daily price movements in candlestick format, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) displayed below.
The RSI, a popular momentum indicator, is showing a bullish divergence, indicating a potential reversal in the trend as downside momentum weakens.
This divergence occurs when the RSI and price trends begin to diverge. Despite bitcoin hitting 21-month lows earlier this week, the RSI has remained relatively strong above its recent lows.
In simpler terms: although the price was declining, the selling momentum was starting to weaken. This inconsistency is what traders refer to as a bullish divergence.
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