For a long time, the crypto market has operated under the stereotype that expensive Ethereum is for whales, while regular users belong on the "second layer". Billions of dollars have fueled ecosystems whose business model revolved around simple intermediation: projects bulk-purchased space on the main network to offer clients more affordable transactions.

The rollup-centric strategy seemed unshakeable until February 2026, when Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin signaled a shift: the base layer is preparing for a technological leap, and the network no longer needs centralized "branded shards".

Amid the new Strawmap scaling plan, the market stands on the brink of significant change. We explore why the concept of cheap transactions exclusively on the second layer has become outdated and how leading L2 networks will respond to the new game conditions.

A Shift in Direction and the Scaling Paradox

Since 2020, Ethereum's roadmap has been built around rollups. It was expected that the main network would remain expensive, slow, but secure, while all user activity would shift to blockchains like Optimism, Arbitrum, and Base.

By early 2026, Buterin effectively broke this social contract. His statements on X became a signal for a radical reassessment of architectural priorities.

There have recently been some discussions on the ongoing role of L2s in the Ethereum ecosystem, especially in the face of two facts:

* L2s' progress to stage 2 (and, secondarily, on interop) has been far slower and more difficult than originally expected
* L1 itself is scaling,…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 3, 2026

For investors, this is a reason to reassess the capitalization of L2 tokens, whose utility was based solely on the narrative of "saving" Ethereum from high fees. For developers, the situation presents an ultimatum: offer a truly unique product or become an unnecessary link in the gas distribution chain.

A paradox emerged: while the industry created hundreds of rollups to relieve the mainnet, Ethereum itself no longer needed them in their previous format. This shift is driven by systemic issues with L2 solutions regarding decentralization and the main blockchain's readiness for aggressive scaling.

A Crisis of Trust and "Training Wheels"

Buterin's dissatisfaction was triggered by technical stagnation and the unwillingness of L2 teams to transition to true decentralization. Back in 2022, he proposed a three-stage maturity assessment system for rollups: from Stage 0 (full developer control) to Stage 2 (security ensured solely by code and cryptography).

By early 2026, it became clear that progress toward Stage 2 was significantly slower than optimistically expected by the Ethereum Foundation. Most major networks remained stuck at the first stage. They still retain "training wheels"—safety advisories, multisigs, and administrative keys that allow manual changes to the blockchain state.

The problem lies not only in technical complexity. Buterin pointed out a systemic conflict of interest: many projects deliberately slow down the transfer of control to the community.

Reasons vary from a desire to maintain an established business model to a need to comply with regulatory requirements. Some developers openly state their refusal to make radical changes in favor of institutional clients who require options for censoring transactions or blocking assets. This approach clashes with the principles of the Ethereum ecosystem.

Only a few projects have reached Stage 1; a significant portion remains at "Stage 0". Source: L2BEAT.

Key issues with current L2 solutions include:

  • Illusion of Continuity: Projects have been using the Ethereum brand for years but remain isolated systems with "optimistic" bridges, weekly withdrawal delays, and centralized sequencers;
  • Technological Stagnation and Copy-Pasting: Instead of new architectures, the market is flooded with EVM clones lacking innovations in performance or privacy;
  • Dependence on Multisigs: Control over smart contracts remains with a narrow circle of individuals. Security relies on human factors rather than mathematics;
  • Poor Interoperability: Fragmentation of liquidity across hundreds of rollups, leading to a degraded user experience.

According to Buterin, if a project cannot or fundamentally does not want to achieve the second stage of decentralization, it cannot be considered a full part of Ethereum.

Aim High

While second-layer projects stalled at partial centralization, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake presented the strawmap—a comprehensive document outlining new horizons and the pace of network development.

The roadmap describes approximately seven planned hard forks by 2029, with updates expected every six months. According to Drake, the active use of artificial intelligence in the development process could significantly shorten these timelines.

Consensus layer upgrades follow a "star" naming scheme (Altair, Bellatrix, Capella, Deneb, Electra, Fulu). Only two have confirmed names—Glamsterdam and Hegota. They will be deployed in 2026.

Strawmap effectively turns Ethereum into a direct competitor to its own rollups. The stated performance goals pose a threat to projects whose business model relies on reselling cheap gas:

  • L1 throughput up to 10,000 TPS: This figure is achieved through a limit of 1 GB of gas per second, enabled by the implementation of zkEVM at the protocol level and real-time generation of cryptographic proofs;
  • L2 throughput up to 10 million TPS: This milestone will be surpassed using data availability sampling mechanisms that allow second-layer networks to publish up to 1 GB of information per second;
  • Native rollup precompiles: A built-in protocol function for verifying ZK proofs. This allows L2 networks to update synchronously with the mainnet and correct critical errors through a hard fork of the main network.

Buterin emphasized the need to reduce block creation times. Twelve seconds is too long for modern decentralized applications.

Network acceleration is planned in several stages: first from 12 to 8 seconds, then to 6, 4, and finally 2 seconds. The main condition is optimizing P2P interactions between nodes for block dissemination without overloading the network. Concurrently, the goal is to reduce transaction finalization times from 16 minutes to 6–16 seconds.

This will require significant changes at the execution level, including a transition to post-quantum cryptography using hash signatures.

The Great Split: L2 Developers' Counterattack

Statements about the obsolescence of the current L2 model sparked heated discussions among project leaders. The focus quickly shifted from technical aspects to issues of market capitalization protection.

The most hardline stance was taken by Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder. He emphasized that Arbitrum was never intended as a "service for Ethereum". The mainnet serves merely as a security layer for transactions, while L2 networks represent independent economies.

As an argument, Goldfeder recalled peak load periods: during those times, Arbitrum and Base collectively processed over 1,000 TPS while the main network remained at 15–20 TPS. He warned that if Ethereum begins to devalue the role of rollups, institutional players will prefer to launch sovereign L1 blockchains, leading to final liquidity fragmentation.

Base creator Jesse Pollak attempted to smooth things over. He agreed that second-layer solutions should not remain "just cheap ether" and shifted the focus to user experience. Teams are betting on account abstraction, simplifying onboarding, and unique features. Pollak believes that even with a fast base layer, audiences require user-friendly interfaces that the mainnet cannot inherently provide.

StarkWare co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson reacted with irony. He noted that Buterin's "new vision" describes what Starknet has been working on for the past few years—a system based on ZK-STARK proofs with high performance and a focus on decentralization (Stage 2).

Behind these discussions lies a fundamental issue: L2 teams must rejustify the value of their tokens. If scaling functions are successfully implemented at the first level, projects risk losing popularity.

Buterin's skepticism regarding the "rollup-centric" model contradicts marketing strategies that have relied for years on the symbolic proximity to the Ethereum mainnet as the primary source of legitimacy.

A Spectrum Instead of a Standard: A New Ecosystem Classification

Buterin proposed abandoning the rigid dichotomy between L1 and L2 networks in favor of a "spectrum of possibilities". Projects will be classified based on their technical architecture and actual contribution to security, rather than promotional promises.

In this context, he highlights three directions:

  • Narrowly Specialized Systems (app-specific): Solutions with unique logic, such as game engines or decentralized identification. Ethereum serves as the base layer, but they do not strive for full compatibility with EVM;
  • Institutional Networks: Corporate blockchains. They may retain partial centralization due to regulatory requirements but must publish ZK proofs or state data on the mainnet for transparency;
  • Non-Financial Applications: Social platforms, AI agents, and reputation systems. Developers are encouraged to build products resilient to corporate or governmental pressure.

The foundation for all applications should be the CROPS concept, proposed in early March 2026:

  • Resilience to censorship;
  • Open source;
  • Privacy;
  • Security.

Particular emphasis is placed on privacy as the foundation of freedom. The Ethereum Foundation is strengthening teams responsible for integrating privacy tools into the base layer. One such solution is Kohaku—a modular open-source stack for developing secure wallets.

Buterin envisions the future of interfaces in deep integration with AI tools. Neural networks simulate transactions before they are signed: users see a clear summary of the operation and only confirm the action manually in critical situations.

New Achievements and the "Adoption Paradox"

The Ethrex project team, in collaboration with the Ethereum Foundation and L2BEAT, has already presented the code and documentation for the working environment of native rollups.

The prototype implements the EIP-8079 proposal based on the Ethrex client and introduces a new mechanism—EXECUTE precompile. This function allows L2 blocks to be rerun directly on the main network, enabling the mainnet to independently verify the correctness of operations.

Currently, all L2 solutions in the Ethereum ecosystem use fraud proofs or ZK schemes for validation. Native rollups offer an alternative: the base blockchain recalculates the network state through EXECUTE. External proofs are no longer required. If the concept proves effective, rollups could inherit security parameters and software updates directly from Ethereum.

Despite the developers' activity, the cryptocurrency price continues to stagnate. CryptoQuant analysts noted a discrepancy between the demand for the blockchain and the price of ETH, which has dropped more than 50% from recent peaks.

This discrepancy affects not only the user base. CryptoQuant analysts recorded a sharp increase in smart contract and automated protocol activity.

Experts explain the gap by an outflow of investments—the dynamics of quotes are determined by capital flows rather than user growth. Due to the "adoption paradox," Ethereum risks continuing to decline to as low as $1500, stated researcher Julio Moreno. Without significant market shifts, the asset could reach this level by the end of Q3 or early Q4.

However, record network activity may be attributed to mass "address poisoning". Data from Etherscan indicates that after the Fusaka upgrade, the number of "dust" USDT transfers surged by 612%. One reason for the spike in fraudulent activity is the decrease in network fees.

Returning to Roots or Forced Evolution?

In conclusion, the era of profiting from simple EVM infrastructure copying is coming to an end. This marks a new vector for the entire ecosystem.

The narrative of "rescue rollups" is losing relevance. The network is evolving into a system that will either become a global computer with a throughput of 10,000 TPS at the first level or serve as a foundational verification environment for thousands of specialized platforms meeting CROPS standards.

Buterin's metaphor of "taking off jackets and ties" serves as a call to return to cypherpunk ideals. The co-founder expects the community to be more flexible and to abandon excessive corporate control standards. Referring to the specific internet culture surrounding the Milady NFT collection, he notes that to preserve freedom, it is sometimes necessary to step out of one's comfort zone and symbolically "spill wine on oneself," shedding old constraints.