While Bitcoin shows signs of being in the late stages of a downturn, experts caution that it is too early to declare a definitive bottom. According to VanEck's analysis, only two-thirds of the capitulation indicators are currently active.
Eight Signals Out of Twelve
VanEck monitors 12 indicators that reflect market conditions during significant sell-offs, including BTC drawdowns, mining economics, holder behavior, and other metrics. Currently, eight out of the 12 indicators are signaling capitulation, with all 12 having reached such levels at least once over the past three months.
Source: VanEck.This may appear to be a classic sign of a bottom approaching. Bitcoin has already dropped approximately 49% from its all-time high set in October 2025, and its 30-day realized volatility has decreased to 27.2%, well below the long-term average of around 80%. The price has stabilized in a range of about $62,000 to $66,500.
However, analysts advise caution before jumping to conclusions.
History Does Not Promise a Quick Recovery
VanEck's experts compared the current market situation to previous periods when eight to twelve capitulation indicators were triggered simultaneously.
The findings were somewhat surprising. The average return of Bitcoin 90 days after such signals was 12.8%, while after 180 days, it was 32%.
Source: VanEck.In contrast, the typical historical returns for the asset during these periods were 15.2% and 36.3%, respectively.
This advantage was only evident over a one-year timeframe. VanEck also cautioned that the sample size is small and overlaps significantly across different periods, making it difficult to draw confident predictions.
In essence, while capitulation may indicate that most of the sell-off is over, it does not guarantee an immediate reversal, the analysts emphasized.
The Current Cycle Differs from Previous Ones
VanEck anticipates that the current decline will be less severe than in past cycles.
Previous major bear markets for Bitcoin experienced drops of 78% to 94%. Currently, the decline is around 49%. Analysts attribute this potential difference to the emergence of U.S. spot ETFs, a significantly larger share of institutional investors, and the absence of systemic collapses like Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX.
Another factor is the duration of the cycle. The last three bear markets, excluding the first cycle, lasted an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown. Bitcoin is currently in approximately the 10th to 11th month since its October peak.
Source: VanEck.Historical models suggest a possible accumulation phase could begin between September and November 2026, according to VanEck specialists.
Long-Term Holders Continue to Sell
Analysts noted concerning behavior among long-term investors. Over the past 30 days, the volume of coins held for more than a year decreased by about 356,000 BTC, bringing the total to 11.84 million BTC, a decline of 2.9%. The share of the supply held by this group of investors has fallen below 60% for the first time in several months.
This indicates that even after a nearly 50% drop, some long-term holders are still liquidating their positions, which does not suggest a fully established accumulation phase, experts believe.
Conversely, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown a reverse trend. In the last 30 days, they attracted about $663 million in net inflows, while the previous month saw an outflow of approximately 40,010 BTC, or $2.4 billion.
It is worth noting that according to CryptoQuant, the first cryptocurrency may be nearing the end of its bearish phase, as on-chain metrics indicate the first signs of a recovery in spot demand.