Report: The U.S. Maintains an Edge Over China in the Quantum Race

The U.S. currently holds a slight advantage over China in Quantum Information Science, Engineering, and Technology (QISET). However, this lead is narrowing and could vanish in a few years, according to a report from the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP).

The authors compared the two countries across five areas:

• innovation;
• industrial potential;
• market ecosystem;
• human resources;
• government leverage.

The U.S. leads in four categories, while China surpasses its competitor in the last due to a centralized strategy, government support, and long-term planning.

“Overall, the U.S. maintains a slight advantage in QISET due to strengths in innovation, software, private capital, and specific elements of the supply chain. However, this gap is closing,” the report states.

SCSP notes that leadership in quantum technologies will depend not only on scientific breakthroughs but also on the ability to translate research into scalable, sustainable, and operational systems.

Where the U.S. Excels

The authors highlight the U.S.'s strengths in scientific influence, quantum software, private capital, and specific supply chain elements.

U.S. researchers accounted for 35% of the most cited scientific publications in quantum technologies for 2025, which are in the top 10% by citation count in relevant journals. China's share was 23%. According to SCSP, China's figure has doubled over the past decade, meaning the U.S. is not losing ground in absolute terms but is facing rapid growth from its competitor.

A specific area of the race is quantum error correction, a set of methods that allows for the detection and correction of failures in quantum computations. In this field, the U.S. maintains an advantage in both publications and patents: 55% of the most cited patents are associated with American authors compared to 18% for China.

The U.S. also retains a strong software ecosystem. Developers worldwide primarily use American tools like IBM's Qiskit and Google's Cirq. The former is a toolkit for developing quantum programs, while the latter serves a similar role for quantum algorithms and simulations.

According to SCSP, by December 2025, Qiskit downloads exceeded 450,000. In comparison, the Chinese package PyQPanda, developed by Origin Quantum, was downloaded just over 4,000 times.

The market section of the report states that by 2024, announced private investments in the U.S. quantum sector reached approximately $5.3 billion. By 2025, American entities deployed between 39 and 73 quantum computers. For China, the range is reported as 15–18 systems, although this estimate may be understated due to lower transparency.

Where China is Closing the Gap

SCSP notes China's rapid progress in materials, algorithms, manufacturing, and quantum networks.

In the segment of advanced quantum materials, Chinese researchers account for about 50% of the most impactful publications, compared to roughly 20% for the U.S. The authors attribute this to a long-term strategy where universities, government laboratories, and national entities work in concert.

China has also strengthened its position in quantum algorithms. By 2025, the country surpassed the U.S. in related patents at a ratio of about 5:2. However, publications in this area are still more frequently associated with the U.S.: the share of American authors dropped from 40% to 30% over the past five years, while China's share grew to 20%.

The most notable advantage for China is in quantum networks. The country demonstrated quantum key distribution (QKD) over fiber lines and relays spanning a total of 6,277 miles. QKD uses quantum principles for exchanging encryption keys and detecting interception attempts.

China has also deployed a direct quantum communication network over 186 miles. In the U.S., comparable projects are currently limited to regional test sites: 124 miles in the Chicago Quantum Network, 98 miles at Brookhaven National Laboratory, and about 13 miles between Illinois and Indiana.

The report's authors clarify that the U.S. has not prioritized QKD. The National Security Agency has pointed out both the opportunities and the complexities of implementing such technology.

Manufacturing and Workforce Risks for the U.S.

In the industrial section, SCSP highlights a gap in scaling costs. In 2025, building high-end clean rooms in the U.S. cost between $800 and $1,000 per square foot. In China, such facilities cost around $150 per square foot, with some regional governments subsidizing up to 30% of construction costs.

Clean rooms are necessary for manufacturing quantum equipment, as they reduce contamination levels that can disrupt sensitive devices.

Meanwhile, the U.S. retains advantages in certain niche areas of the supply chain. The report mentions helium-3, cryogenic systems, dilution refrigerators, and specialized lasers. China is developing domestic alternatives, but some critical infrastructure remains more robust in the U.S. and allied countries.

The workforce aspect also plays a role in closing the gap. In the U.S., 61 institutions offer programs in quantum information science and engineering. The American system remains open to foreign researchers, with about half of the PhDs in physics awarded to individuals with different citizenships.

China's advantage lies in scale. Since 2020, the country has been producing over 50% more PhDs in STEM fields annually than the U.S. Since 2000, the growth rate of Chinese PhD graduates in these areas has been three times faster than that of the U.S.

Funding and Strategy

SCSP estimates China's government funding for quantum technologies to be around $15 billion by the end of 2024. In comparison, U.S. investments in quantum research and development over the past seven years have totaled about $6 billion.

The report notes that the American model remains decentralized: universities, national laboratories, startups, and large tech companies are developing various hardware and software approaches. The Chinese model, on the other hand, relies on state laboratories, regional industrial hubs, and long-term plans.

According to SCSP, neither model is unequivocally superior. The outcome of the race will depend on which system can more quickly solve engineering challenges and translate laboratory results into infrastructure, products, and standards.

It is worth noting that in October 2024, media reported that Chinese scientists had conducted the "world's first effective attack" on a widely used encryption algorithm using a quantum computer.