The likelihood of a significant correction in the cryptocurrency market due to the US-Venezuela conflict is very low, according to Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading.

I don't think we'll see a widespread correction based on the attack in Venezuela on #Bitcoin.

It's a planned and coordinated attack on Maduro, and is already past us.

The likelihood of more negativity on the markets from that single event is relatively slim.

I would assume…

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 3, 2026

"This is a planned and coordinated attack on [Venezuelan President] Nicolás Maduro, and it is already in the past," the expert added.

According to van de Poppe's forecast, Bitcoin is expected to surpass $90,000 soon. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $91,500, having gained 2% over the past day.

15-minute BTC/USDT chart from Binance. Source: TradingView.

On January 3, the US conducted strikes in Venezuela, lasting about 30 minutes. As a result, Maduro was captured and taken out of the country.

Initially, Bitcoin reacted with a slight decline but then resumed its upward trend.

"Markets are usually influenced by uncertainty, not by events that have already occurred. In this case, it seems that much of this has already been priced in," noted crypto analyst Shagun Makin.

He also emphasized that Bitcoin's ability to remain stable amid "geopolitical noise" is likely to strengthen demand above $90,000 rather than undermine it.

"This situation might even bring some profit to the market, as people will perceive it as a sign of strength," added analyst Tyler Hill.

Insider Bets

Researchers at Lookonchain discovered suspicious activity on Polymarket. They reported that just hours before Maduro's arrest, three wallets placed bets on the Venezuelan president leaving office.

Three insider wallets on #Polymarket bet on Venezuelan President Maduro being out of office just hours before his arrest, netting a total profit of $630,484!

The three wallets were created and pre-funded days in advance.

Then, just hours before Maduro's arrest, they suddenly… pic.twitter.com/VRAkQh8i9a

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 4, 2026

Their total profit from these trades exceeded $630,000. One wallet invested $34,000 and ended up with $409,900.

"All three addresses only placed bets on events related to Venezuela and Maduro and had no history of other trades—an obvious sign of insider trading," stated Lookonchain.

Meanwhile, a trader on Polymarket using the pseudonym Sweetceecks reported making $80,000 in one night by betting on the overthrow of the Venezuelan president.

He noted the rise of the "pizza index" and placed his bet. This index reflects the number of orders from nearby Domino’s Pizza locations around the Pentagon, considered an indirect sign of increased US military activity.

"Pizza index" on January 3. Source: X.

As a reminder, by the end of 2025, retail investors had outpaced whales in Bitcoin accumulation.