This morning's report may temper market hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this summer or early Fall.
By Stephen Alpher, Helene BraunUpdated Jul 2, 2026, 12:46 p.m. Published Jul 2, 2026, 12:37 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on U.S. jobs data for June (Eric Prouzet/Unsplash)SummaryShow- In June, the U.S. added only 57,000 jobs, falling short of the 110,000 expected and significantly lower than May’s revised figure of 129,000.
- The unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%, slightly better than the anticipated 4.3% and May’s 4.3% rate.
- The disappointing labor data may reduce the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which contributed to a decline in bitcoin prices following the news.
Last month, U.S. job growth fell short of expectations, which could lead to a reassessment of market predictions regarding a Federal Reserve interest rate increase as soon as this summer or early Fall.
The government's Nonfarm Payrolls Report released on Thursday revealed that the U.S. added just 57,000 jobs in June, a stark contrast to the 110,000 jobs economists had forecasted and well below the revised gain of 129,000 in May (originally reported as 172,000).
The unemployment rate was reported at 4.2%, compared to an expected 4.3% and May’s 4.3%. The decline in the unemployment rate occurred even as hiring slowed, attributed to a drop in the Labor Force Participation rate from 61.8% to 61.5%.
Bitcoin BTC$61,469.81, which saw a significant increase ahead of the report, remained above $61,000, reflecting a 4% rise over the previous 24 hours.
In response to the data, U.S. stocks reacted positively, with Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 0.7% from a previously flat position ahead of the report. Additionally, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by four basis points to 4.46%.
The changing expectations regarding interest rates have been a prominent macroeconomic narrative this year. Following President Trump's clear push for lower interest rates and his appointment of a new Fed chair, the key question for markets shifted to how frequently the U.S. central bank might reduce rates in 2026.
However, inflation has surged in the first half of the year, partly due to rising energy prices, leading new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take a more hawkish stance in the recent policy meeting two weeks ago.
In light of this report, market expectations could shift once again. CME FedWatch indicated that before the report, there was approximately a 65% chance of one or more rate increases by September; that probability has since dropped to 50%.
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