Your day-ahead look for May 28, 2026
By Francisco Rodrigues|Edited by Sheldon Reback May 28, 2026, 11:28 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on (clarencealford/Pixabay)Key Highlights:
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Bitcoin BTC$73,379.00 slipped below the $73,000 mark, reaching its lowest point since April 13 on Thursday, as renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran unsettled global markets, driving oil prices up and reducing hopes for a lasting ceasefire.
This decline followed U.S. military strikes in southern Iran. In response, Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed to have targeted the U.S. base responsible for the attacks, cautioning that future retaliation would be "more decisive," as reported by the New York Times. Kuwait, which hosts several U.S. military bases, reported intercepting hostile drones and missiles.
The increasing tension has lowered expectations that an agreement between Washington and Tehran could stabilize the vital Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil transport.
The likelihood of a permanent ceasefire by the end of May has plummeted to just 8% on Polymarket, down from a peak of 70% over the weekend. Expectations for a ceasefire by the end of June have also decreased, from 76% to 42%.
On Kalshi, traders are betting that traffic through the strait will remain low. Brent crude saw an increase of nearly 4%, reaching approximately $96 per barrel, raising fears that higher energy prices might exacerbate inflationary pressures globally.
In the cryptocurrency market, reactions mirrored those in broader risk assets. Rony Szuster, the head of research at Mercado Bitcoin, noted that investors are preoccupied with geopolitical tensions and the forthcoming U.S. inflation data, particularly Thursday's PCE report, which is the Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure.
“The crypto market remains structurally resilient, bolstered by long-term accumulation and the strength of AI and blockchain infrastructure narratives,” Szuster remarked in a note to CoinDesk.
“However, in the short term, the market is more reactive to geopolitical events and the return of institutional investments post-U.S. holiday, which is keeping bitcoin in a consolidation phase while altcoins are traded selectively,” he added. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
Trending Topics
- Bitcoin could be heading much lower, fund manager warns, as $150 billion Treasury operation nears (CoinDesk): Treasury operations scheduled from May 28 to June 5 could lead to a liquidity drain of about $150 billion.
- BlackRock's bitcoin ETF sheds $528 million, the second-largest daily outflow on record (CoinDesk): The iShares Bitcoin Trust from BlackRock experienced a net outflow of $527.84 million on Wednesday, marking the second-largest single-day outflow since the fund's launch in January 2024.
- Samsung units to buy $408 million stake in South Korea’s biggest crypto exchange (CoinDesk). Samsung Securities plans to acquire a 2% stake in Dunamu, valued at over $200 million, from affiliates of Kakao. Samsung Card and Samsung SDS will each take a 1% stake.
- Oil prices rise after U.S. and Iran conduct airstrikes (Reuters): Oil prices surged over 2% following Iran's announcement of targeting a U.S. airbase in retaliation for prior strikes. Brent crude futures increased by 2.52% to $96.67 per barrel.
Today's Market Signals
- Bitcoin continues to trade below the 50-week exponential moving average of $84,000.
- The lack of RSI divergences on the weekly price chart suggests there is no clear market trend.
- The next critical support level to watch is $68,000.
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