The peace agreement established over the weekend has given many markets the boost they were anticipating. Nevertheless, cryptocurrency traders have become skeptical of such announcements.
By Shaurya Malwa, Saksham Diwan|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 15, 2026, 11:19 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on (CoinDesk)SummaryShow- Global equities surged following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies saw only slight increases as traders remained skeptical about the longevity of the truce.
- Crypto derivatives indicated a rise in open interest and a slightly stronger basis, suggesting a growing institutional interest, although low funding rates and reduced implied volatility hint at a lack of aggressive trading.
- Tokens related to decentralized A.I., like Venice’s VVV and Morpheus’s MOR, experienced significant gains due to a narrative around censorship resistance after Anthropic restricted access to its advanced models under U.S. export regulations.
The peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran that was finalized over the weekend has energized various markets.
Oil prices dropped by over 4% following the announcement of the Strait of Hormuz's reopening, while copper prices increased. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index saw a 3% rise, and Japan's Nikkei 225 reached a new record high.
In contrast, cryptocurrency markets reacted with only modest increases post-announcement, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) showing little movement since midnight UTC, although it did rise by 2.4% over a 24-hour period.
Bitcoin BTC$66,181.24 remained below the $66,000 mark, showing minimal change since midnight after a 3.4% uptick over the weekend. Ether (ETH) mirrored Bitcoin's performance. Smaller altcoins saw more significant increases, with the CoinDesk 80 Index gaining 1.5% since midnight.
Traders in the crypto market, influenced by geopolitical dynamics and lacking specific industry catalysts, have grown cautious with such headlines. Previous ceasefires in April and recent U.S. strikes on June 9 disrupted earlier agreements, causing Bitcoin to retract its gains. Currently, traders seem reluctant to invest in a deal that remains unratified until the week's end.
Despite the market stabilizing since an early June downturn, the on-chain community remains divided. Valuation models suggest the worst of the selling may be over, while flow data indicates that actual buying interest is still lacking. Both assessments could be accurate simultaneously.
Additionally, competition is a factor; SpaceX (SPCX) recently went public with the largest IPO in history, surging 19% on its first day. ARK Invest, led by Bitcoin advocate Cathie Wood, took a significant position in the IPO.
Both OpenAI and Anthropic have also filed for IPOs. Currently, the most exciting innovation is happening in stocks rather than tokens, which is drawing from the same pool of risk capital.
Derivatives
- This week, Bitcoin derivatives positioning has strengthened, with open interest (OI) climbing to $17.4 billion, a 7% increase from the previous week, and the three-month annualized basis rising to 3.0% from 2.8%.
- However, funding rates remain low, ranging from 0% to about -4% annualized across various platforms, indicating subdued demand for leverage in perpetual contracts despite the increase in OI and basis.
- While rising OI and a firmer basis suggest growing institutional interest, the soft funding rates signal a lack of aggressive trading strategies.
- Options positioning appears mixed: the 24-hour put/call ratio has tilted towards puts (~25/75), but the volatility surface does not reflect significant stress. Deribit's implied volatility index, DVOL, has decreased to 39, down 3.4% on the day and near multi-year lows, with the ATM term structure remaining in contango (30–31% at the front end and around 43% to March 2027) rather than backwardation. This indicates a focus on downside hedging rather than a broad volatility bid.
- Coinglass data reveals $343 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with a 27-73 split between long and short positions. BTC (136 million) and ETH ($60 million) led in notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap shows $66,100 as a key liquidation level to watch in the event of a price surge.
Token Talk
- Decentralized A.I. tokens surged following the U.S. government's directive to Anthropic on Friday to restrict foreign access to its two most advanced models.
- Venice's VVV rose approximately 14% to $16.37 on Saturday, with trading volume increasing nearly 200% to around $130 million, as per CoinGecko data. Morpheus's MOR experienced a 21% increase, reaching $2.28.
- Anthropic announced that the Commerce Department ordered it to limit access to its new Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models for all foreign nationals, regardless of their location.
- In compliance, Anthropic disabled both models for all users while keeping its other models operational. The company described the issue as a narrow concern regarding a method to bypass the models' safeguards and stated it is working to resolve what it termed a misunderstanding.
- Supporters of decentralized A.I. seized on this closure as validation of their argument. Erik Voorhees, founder of Venice and ShapeShift, tweeted: "There's a reason we built Venice."
- The Morpheus account expressed gratitude to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for the "free publicity," framing permissionless A.I. as something that no government can shut down.
- Venice restricts access to open-source models via its VVV token, while Morpheus rewards contributors of computing power and code with MOR.
- The narrative surrounding censorship resistance drove the tokens' rally, even though their capabilities were less robust than those of the Anthropic systems that were restricted.
- The tokens gained traction based on the censorship-resistant narrative rather than their functional capabilities.
- 1Markets react positively to U.S.-Iran Agreement despite Middle East risks and Fed concerns2 minutes ago
- 2Middle East ceasefire and Fed interest rate decision: What to watch in the crypto week ahead1 hour ago
- 3Stablecoin linked to Trump utilized for bonus payouts at White House UFC event3 hours ago
- 4ARK Invest acquired over $500 million in SpaceX shares during IPO4 hours ago
- 5Bitcoin traders should monitor Tuesday's BOJ rate decision as yen shorts reach a nine-year peak5 hours ago
- 6Live updates: Bitcoin rises above $66,000 amid short squeeze driven by U.S.-Iran deal optimism6 hours ago
- 7XRP increases by 4% above $1.18 as traders approach next resistance level7 hours ago
- 8Bitcoin reaches a two-week peak above $65,500 as the U.S.-Iran agreement impacts oil prices8 hours ago
- 9Bitcoin rises sharply following Iran deal with the Strait of Hormuz reopening11 hours ago
- 10Bitcoin may plummet to $48,000 if a historical pattern is activated16 hours ago
Exchange Volumes Decline to Lowest Levels Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach All-Time High
Exchange Volumes Decline to Lowest Levels Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach All-Time High
In May, total exchange volume dropped 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024, while RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, reaching a historic peak.
By CoinDesk Research11 minutes agoIn May, total exchange volume dropped 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024, while RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, reaching a historic peak.
Why it matters:
In May, total exchange volume dropped 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024, while RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, reaching a historic peak.
View Full ReportMore From Markets