In March, the US Consumer Price Index increased by 0.9%, rising from 2.4% to 3.3%. This marks the highest level since May 2024, according to analysts at The Kobeissi Letter.
BREAKING: March CPI inflation RISES to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.4%.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 10, 2026
Core CPI inflation rises to 2.6%, below expectations of 2.7%.
CPI inflation is now at its highest level since May 2024 amid the Iran War.
Fed rate cuts have been priced out for 2026.
The cryptocurrency market showed little reaction to the latest macroeconomic data. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $72,400, up 1.6% in the last 24 hours.
Hourly chart of BTC/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
Ethereum is priced around $2,200, having risen 1.7% over the past day.
Hourly chart of ETH/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView.
The data came in slightly below analysts' forecasts, who had anticipated an increase to 3.4% due to rising oil prices stemming from the Middle East conflict.
However, the US and Israeli military operations against Iran have impacted energy prices, which surged by 10.9% in March—the largest monthly increase since 2005.
The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% for the month, compared to a forecast of 0.3% and February's 0.2%.
On a year-over-year basis, core inflation stood at 2.6%.
Geopolitical tensions have forced investors to significantly revise their forecasts for Fed interest rates. Initially, the market was pricing in one or more cuts, but now participants expect the current range to be maintained in April and June.
Source: CME FedWatch.
As a reminder, on April 8, the US and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire, which helped Bitcoin rise above $71,000.