MarketsUnitree Robotics is preparing to go public, with traders on Hyperliquid predicting a valuation increase of four times the initial public offering (IPO) price.
Traders Anticipate Unitree's Value at $38 Billion, Significantly Above IPO Valuation
According to analysts from Allium, traders are estimating Unitree's market value to be nearly $38 billion, compared to the $9 billion valuation set at its IPO, which may expose leveraged positions to risks when trading begins.
Unitree has priced its shares for the Shanghai STAR Market at 150.80 yuan ($22.37), giving it an initial market capitalization of around $9 billion. However, perpetual contracts trading on Hyperliquid indicated valuations between $92 and $94 on Friday, translating to approximately $38 billion, as noted in a report by Allium.
This substantial premium reflects high expectations for the Chinese robotics manufacturer, which was established in Hangzhou in 2016. The company specializes in developing four-legged and humanoid robots for various applications, including research, industrial use, and consumer markets. Last year, Unitree reported revenues of $253 million, marking a 335% increase, with humanoid robot sales exceeding 5,500 units, according to Allium's findings.
The IPO reportedly saw overwhelming interest, being oversubscribed by retail investors by a factor of 8000. Trading is anticipated to commence between August 17 and August 21.
Unitree robot showcased during its store opening at the JD.com Inc. Shuangjing shopping center. (Fred Lee/Getty Images)Pre-IPO Perpetual Contracts
The impending public offering of Unitree is set against the backdrop of a growing segment in the crypto derivatives market: pre-IPO perpetual futures. Hyperliquid has established itself as a key platform for these derivatives, which allow traders to make leveraged bets without a set expiration.
This trading mechanism has recently expanded beyond cryptocurrencies to include commodities and private companies like Unitree. Pre-IPO perpetual contracts do not grant ownership of shares but enable speculation on a company's future valuation. Historical data shows that recent listings have closely aligned with their opening market prices.
For instance, a pre-IPO contract for the Chinese memory-chip manufacturer CXMT was within 2.5% of its opening price when it debuted in July, and traders on Hyperliquid successfully predicted that Elon Musk's SpaceX would launch higher than its $135 IPO price.
Potential Market Volatility
Unitree's pre-IPO trading has already generated significant activity, with two markets on Hyperliquid—operated by Trade.xyz and Paragon—accumulating $9.1 million in open interest and approximately $59 million in trading volume. The average price difference between the markets was only 1.6%, with recent trades around $92 and $94, indicating a potential upside exceeding 300% from the IPO price.
Despite the anticipated strong debut, the fourfold premium could still lead to significant losses for leveraged traders. For instance, if Unitree opens at twice its IPO price, it could liquidate about a third of long positions, according to Allium's analysis. An opening around $45 would be 52% lower than current perpetual prices, while a price of $128 could liquidate over half of short positions.
Market positioning on Trade.xyz shows a near balance, with $6.5 million in long bets and $6.6 million in short bets. However, smaller trades below $50,000 are predominantly bearish, with 70% of these bets placed short. "Any deviation from the current price will force one side of the market to exit," Allium added.
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