On January 30, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May.

The politician stated that he has known Warsh for a long time and is "confident" that he will go down in history as "one of the greatest Fed chairs."

"Perhaps even the best," Trump added.

Prior to this announcement, prediction markets assessed the likelihood of this outcome at over 95%. In the last 24 hours, Warsh's chances of being nominated surged by 68% on Polymarket.

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh is an American financier and banking executive who served as a member of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011.

During and following the 2008 financial crisis, he played a key role as a liaison between the Fed and Wall Street.

Warsh also represented the Federal Reserve at the G20 and acted as an emissary for the Board in both developing and developed Asian economies.

Before that, he was a special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the National Economic Council at the White House.

"Markets generally view Warsh's potential return as a bearish signal for Bitcoin. His focus on monetary discipline, high real rates, and reduced liquidity paints cryptocurrency not as a hedge against fiat devaluation, but as a speculative excess that fades with the end of cheap money," said Marcus Tilen, founder of 10x Research.

Higher real interest rates reflect the actual cost of borrowing adjusted for inflation. This "true" rate significantly influences financial decisions. When it rises, businesses and investors typically cut back on investments in riskier assets, including Bitcoin.

The 2008 Crisis

Warsh's experience only heightens concerns. During the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, when the world economy teetered on the brink of deflation, he continued to warn about inflation risks:

  1. In September 2008, the month of the Lehman Brothers collapse, Warsh stated: "I am still not ready to abandon my concerns about inflation."
  2. Seven months later, when the Fed's key inflation indicator was at 0.8% and unemployment reached 9%, he reiterated: "I remain more concerned about the risks of rising inflation than the risks of it declining."

Many experts agree that such a hardline stance and the dismissal of deflation risks exacerbated the crisis.

"Had his approach been implemented, it would likely have led to higher unemployment, a slower recovery, and increased deflationary risks in the 2010s," noted Tilen.

Warsh's potential appointment appears paradoxical: his reputation as a monetary "hawk" directly contradicts Trump's reflationary and risk-on agenda.

The president has repeatedly and harshly criticized Jerome Powell—often resorting to personal insults—for maintaining high rates. According to Trump, this "kills" the economy.

Trump insists on the need for swift and deep cuts, calling for rates to be lowered to around 1% from the current 3.5-3.7%.

As a result, many experts doubt that Warsh is the right candidate for the Fed, which is expected to fully align with the White House's course.

Kevin Warsh has been a monetary policy hawk his entire career and most importantly, during a time when the labor markets fell out of bed. His dovishness today stems from convenience. The President risks getting duped.

— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) January 30, 2026

"Kevin Warsh has been a monetary 'hawk' throughout his career, critically during a time when the labor market was in ruins. His current 'dovish' rhetoric is a matter of convenience. The President risks being misled," warned analysts at Renaissance Macro Research.

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder of research firm NowcastIQ, described Warsh as a "convenient" candidate for Trump:

"In my opinion, to consider Warsh more of a 'hawk' compared to other candidates like Rick Reider and Chris Waller is a misconception. Warsh is very close to the Trump family, and I believe he received the nomination precisely because Trump wants someone in this position with whom he has enough trust to effectively 'control the agenda.'"

Warsh is indeed closely connected to Trump's circle. He is married to Jane Lauder, heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics empire. His father-in-law, billionaire Ronald Lauder, is a long-time political ally of Trump.

What is His Stance on Cryptocurrencies?

Warsh holds a much more positive view of Bitcoin compared to Powell, who has largely ignored the role of cryptocurrency in the U.S. economy.

In a July interview with the Hoover Institution, he dismissed the idea that Bitcoin could undermine the Fed's ability to manage the economy. According to Warsh, the asset can "provide market discipline":

"Bitcoin does not worry me. I see it as an important asset that can signal to policymakers when they are acting correctly or incorrectly. […] It is the latest and most sophisticated software that will enable us to do what was previously unattainable."

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, called the Fed chair candidate "the first Bitcoin-friendly chair of the Federal Reserve."

Soon, Kevin Warsh will be the first pro-Bitcoin Chairman of the Federal Reserve.pic.twitter.com/afEBrBFeWX

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) January 30, 2026

As arguments for his positive influence on the industry, some also note that Warsh is an advisor to Bitwise and acts as a business angel for several cryptocurrency projects.

However, critics do not consider "a few positive words about Bitcoin" as indicative of his true stance on digital assets. For instance, a user named George Bodine labeled Warsh as "part of the system."

"If you're under 40, I guess Bitcoin is your new gold."

Some people are using this clip and others to paint Warsh as friendly to Bitcoin.

Warsh is not a strong proponent for Bitcoin or an outlier. He is part of the system. A Cantillionaire plugged into the money nipple.

He was… pic.twitter.com/3jcmq3BJF7

— George Bodine (@Jethroe111) January 30, 2026

"He was a member of the Fed Board during the global financial crisis and participated in the development and implementation of measures to rescue the economy. He is incredibly wealthy, and his family connections and personal interests ensure that his priorities will align with those of the Fed," the user emphasized.

Some have also urged members of the crypto community not to overestimate Warsh's statements, which in reality reflect a neutral stance towards cryptocurrencies, referring to Bitcoin simply as "new software."

Despite the crypto mafia already claiming Kevin Warsh is extremely pro crypto…in reality he’s been neutral at best, interested in blockchain but referring to it as just “shiny new software”, a novelty

OTOH he’s talked against independent stablecoins, instead backing a CBDC pic.twitter.com/MNVyRkpm7N

— Rho Rider (@RhoRider) January 30, 2026

It is worth noting that in January, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the U.S. Department of Justice threatened him with criminal prosecution due to testimony given in Congress in June 2025.