On July 16, U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with several senators, including Cynthia Lummis, to discuss the CLARITY Act. The parties aim to agree on restrictions for high-ranking officials involved in the cryptocurrency business. Legislators hope to bring the bill to a vote before the August recess.
Lummis anticipates a new version will be introduced in the coming days and reviewed next week. On Kalshi, the probability of a vote before the recess is estimated at 79% (up from 68.8% the previous day), with a 36% chance of the law passing in 2026, and a 62% chance by the end of 2027. On Polymarket, the likelihood of it being signed into law in 2026 is at 39%.