Overview
- Market prediction traders are forecasting additional declines for Bitcoin and Ethereum amid ongoing sell-offs.
- Current predictions suggest Bitcoin could drop to $55,000 and Ethereum to $1,500 prior to any potential recovery.
- One analyst indicates that the near-term outlook may depend on the performance of STRC, the equity offering from Bitcoin giant, Strategy.
Traders in prediction markets are increasingly pessimistic about the short-term price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating further declines to around $55,000 and $1,500, respectively.
On Myriad—a prediction market platform run by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—traders currently assign a 77% probability to a drop in Bitcoin to $55,000 before any rise to $80,000, and an 88% probability for an Ethereum decrease to $1,500 before a surge to $3,000, as markets experienced a sell-off on Thursday.
This bearish sentiment has intensified over the last month, with the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $55,000 increasing by 44% on Myriad. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $59,511, reflecting a 1% decline in the past 24 hours and a total drop of 23% over the last month. Earlier on Thursday, Bitcoin dipped to nearly $58,000, marking its lowest value since 2024.
The downturn is mirrored in traditional markets, as shares of Strategy (MSTR), a leading treasury firm for Bitcoin, have plummeted nearly 7% since the market opened on Thursday, trading around $88.
In the past month, shares of the company have declined by almost 45%, while STRC—its preferred equity offering aimed at maintaining a par value of $100—has seen a 22% drop, recently trading around $77. STRC hit an all-time low of $73.62 shortly after the market opened on Thursday.
“In the short term, STRC is influencing Bitcoin's price significantly,” stated Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan in an interview with Decrypt.
“While macroeconomic factors—such as rising inflation fears and concerns about interest rate hikes—play a role, the market seems fixated on STRC trading in the $70s,” he added. “There are worries that Strategy may enter a downward spiral and be compelled to liquidate Bitcoin holdings. This pressure is likely to persist until Strategy clarifies its plans to address these issues.”
As market fears are reflected in pricing, analysts suggest that the company's best strategy may involve strengthening its cash reserves to provide more time to meet dividend obligations, which could help calm anxious investors.
Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also faced challenges, dropping to $1,576—a 2.6% decline in the last 24 hours and a more than 25% decrease over the past month. Currently, ETH is just 5.2% above the predicted level of $1,500 on Myriad. According to Hougan, ETH is primarily experiencing “collateral damage” amid the concerns surrounding STRC.
Traders on alternative prediction market platforms are similarly indicating a long-term bearish outlook for major cryptocurrencies. Kalshi markets predict a 36% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $40,000 by 2026, and a 34% chance that Ethereum will drop below $1,000.
At present, Bitcoin is nearly 53% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached last October, while Ethereum is more than 68% below its peak of $4,946 from last August.