Your outlook for June 17, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 17, 2026, 11:15 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on The FOMC's first interest-rate decision under Kevin Warsh will be closely monitored.(joshua-hoehne/Unsplash)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Subscribe here, if you haven't already.
Today marks Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's inaugural interest-rate decision, with no changes anticipated. Consequently, the markets will focus on the policy statement, economic forecasts, and the press conference for insights.
Here are three factors that might trigger a favorable response from bitcoin BTC$64,766.65:
The dot plot: This chart illustrates individual Fed members' expectations for future interest rates. Current Fed funds futures indicate an 80% likelihood of a 25 basis-point increase by December. If the dot plot reveals fewer than 80% of members predicting a hike by then, it could lead to a positive price reaction for BTC.
Warsh's stance on rates and inflation: Will Warsh, a Trump appointee, deviate from market expectations and adopt a dovish perspective, referencing recent oil price trends and AI-induced disinflation to support desired rate cuts? Alternatively, will he align with current market predictions? If he opts for the former, BTC might respond favorably.
Forward guidance: Warsh has previously criticized the Fed for over-communicating with the market. He is likely to face questions about this during the press conference, and should he indicate a significant reduction in forward guidance, it could influence market movements.
Currently, implied volatility indexes for bitcoin and ether (ETH) are at two-week lows, having reversed the earlier spike seen this month. This suggests expectations for ongoing market stability. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For insights on today's altcoin and derivatives activity, check out Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
Trending Topics
U.S. Fed expected to maintain rates at Warsh's initial meeting (AFP): The U.S. Federal Reserve is predicted to keep interest rates unchanged this Wednesday during Kevin Warsh's first meeting at the helm, with potential rate hikes looming to tackle rising inflation.
IEA reports on demand destruction due to Iran war, predicts oil glut (CNBC): The IEA has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the year as elevated prices impact consumption, suggesting a post-war supply recovery might create an oil surplus in 2027.
Kalshi seeks to broaden perpetual futures offerings after a $5.5 billion launch (Bloomberg): Kalshi Inc. is planning to extend its new perpetual futures segment beyond digital assets following a robust trading volume of over $5.5 billion in the initial two weeks on the prediction-market platform.
Ethereum's significant protocol upgrade enters final development phase (CoinDesk): Developers for Ethereum have reached the last development stage of Glamsterdam, running development networks with all proposed improvements before proceeding to test networks. This upgrade, anticipated in the year's second half, is touted as one of the most substantial changes since the Merge.
Current Financial Signals
U.S. 10-year yield. (TradingView)The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has decreased to 4.43% from recent peaks above 4.55%.
This decline marks a respite in the sharp increase that began with the onset of the Iran war in late February and provides support for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The 10-year yield is widely viewed as the benchmark for interest rates in the economy. An increase in yield can lead to financial tightening, putting pressure on risk assets.
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Exchange Volumes Hit Lowest Point Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach All-Time High
Exchange Volumes Hit Lowest Point Since September 2024 as RWA Perpetuals Reach All-Time High
In May, total exchange volumes dropped by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, achieving a new record.
By CoinDesk ResearchJun 15, 2026In May, total exchange volumes dropped by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, achieving a new record.
Why it matters:
In May, total exchange volumes dropped by 3.45% to $4.41 trillion, marking the lowest level since September 2024. Conversely, RWA perpetual futures volumes increased by 10.4%, achieving a new record.
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