Your day-ahead look for Sept. 30, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Jamie CrawleyUpdated Sep 30, 2026, 7:51 a.m. EDTPublished Sep 30, 2026, 7:20 a.m. EDT3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Bitcoin's correlation with the Dollar Index. (CoinDesk, TradingView)This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing a notable increase, which is typically interpreted as unfavorable for bitcoin BTC$83,796.11 and other assets priced in dollars, such as gold. However, current data suggests that this correlation is not as strong as many believe.
The DXY, which measures the dollar's value against a selection of major currencies, including the euro and yen, has risen approximately 2.6% since September 9, reaching a two-month peak of 101.69 on Tuesday.
As the global reserve currency, the dollar plays a central role in international finance and debt. A dollar increase generally leads to higher repayment costs for borrowers with dollar-denominated debt, often resulting in a reduction in their exposure to riskier assets. Conversely, a weaker dollar tends to encourage investment in such assets.
In theory, this means that a stronger dollar should negatively impact bitcoin. Indeed, BTC's price growth has slowed since September 21, with values retreating to the $83,000-$84,000 range after peaking near $87,500. While a stronger dollar may be limiting potential gains, the overall impact has been minimal.
Further supporting this notion is the correlation data. Over the last 90 trading days, the daily fluctuations of BTC and DXY indicate a correlation of -0.41, according to TradingView data analyzed by CoinDesk. A negative correlation suggests that the two assets tend to move in opposite directions, marking the most significant negative correlation since February 2023.
However, while this correlation exists, it remains relatively weak. The correlation indicates an R-squared value of 0.17, meaning the DXY only explains about 17% of the variability in BTC's daily returns.
Looking at a shorter timeframe, the 30-day correlation stands at -0.45, but this figure is influenced by two specific days, August 19 and September 3, when BTC surged over 5% as DXY fell. Excluding these days, the correlation drops to -0.19.
When considering a longer timeline, the correlation appears even looser. Since January 2020, the 90-day correlation has averaged -0.14 and has even turned positive at times, reaching a peak of +0.22 in November 2024.
Additionally, bitcoin shows little significant correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, as noted in a previous CoinDesk analysis.
This weak correlation with the dollar supports the argument for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, suggesting it tends to respond to its own unique drivers. Observing whether this independence continues will be crucial. Stay vigilant!
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Today’s signal
Dollar Index (DXY). (TradingView)The chart illustrates the daily price movements of the Dollar Index in a candlestick format.
The DXY is currently trading above the Ichimoku cloud, a momentum indicator, suggesting a strengthening bullish trend. However, it has yet to overcome the immediate resistance level of 101.80, which was last reached on June 24.
A breakthrough above this level would signify a bullish resolution to a prolonged period of sideways trading since May 2025, potentially leading to accelerated gains.
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