Summary
- A Polymarket inquiry regarding whether Strategy would offload Bitcoin by May 31 is now contested.
- The firm did execute a sale between May 26 and May 31 but publicly disclosed it on June 1, leading to contention among "Yes" and "No" market participants.
- A final decision on the market will be made through a vote by UMA tokenholders, which is still pending.
On Monday, Bitcoin treasury powerhouse Strategy revealed that it sold a segment of its BTC assets for the first time since 2022. The timing of this transaction has led to disputes among forecasters on Polymarket, which has seen over $50 million in trading activity.
The specific market in question asked participants if Strategy would sell Bitcoin by May 31, and it is now under final consideration after two “No” resolutions were challenged. Trading volume has continued to increase as traders engage with the prominent market.
The disputes arose after Strategy (previously known as MicroStrategy), which possesses Bitcoin valued at over $60 billion, confirmed on Monday that it sold 32 BTC for $2.5 million during the window of May 26 to May 31, prior to the market’s specified end date.
Even though the firm did sell BTC before May 31, the announcement being made after the anticipated market resolution date has led to this contention. Currently, the market stands at 99.9% favoring “No,” with “Yes” investors expressing their frustration in the comments section.
“The rules of this market are explicitly about whether they sold within the timeframe, not on whether there’s confirmation of the sale within that period,” a pseudonymous Polymarket user and “Yes” investor known as Voidofhype commented.
Since the proposed resolution faced two disputes, the market’s ultimate resolution will now go to a vote among UMA tokenholders, who hold the native tokens for the Uma oracle supporting the decentralized prediction market.
Similar market disputes have been resolved this way in the past, including a notable case last year involving a $237 million market about whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit during a specific timeframe.
The final review process may take up to two days, as per the rules for the market. Although Polymarket cannot intervene to make a definitive ruling, they have provided “additional context” for UMA voters to consider via a bulletin board on the market page.
“No information from MSTR, on-chain data, or credible reporting confirmed that MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin within the market's timeframe,” the update states. “Confirmation achieved outside the market's timeframe does not qualify.”
Markets asking whether Strategy would sell BTC by June 30 and December 31 both resolved in favor of “Yes” without any disputes; however, predictors are currently awaiting the outcome of the May 31 market resolution.