In an opinion piece for ForkLog, trader and author of the Coen+ Telegram channel, Vladimir Coen, explores how the recovery of Strategy's stock and its renewed Bitcoin purchases are enhancing its capital-raising capabilities.

At the end of August, Strategy made its first Bitcoin purchases in ten weeks, acquiring 4,603 BTC for $369.7 million, with an average purchase price of $80,318. This activity coincided with a rebound in MSTR from summer lows, closing at $127.31 on August 28 and $132.94 on August 31.

MSTR performance over the last six months. Data as of August 31, 2026. Source: Author.

Simultaneously, the mNAV increased to 1.05–1.06x, recovering from levels where the stock was trading almost at parity with its Bitcoin holdings, meaning it had virtually no premium. The buffer to the 1.00x threshold, below which the company’s new framework makes issuing new shares unprofitable, stands at 6%.

Current Balance

The total Bitcoin holding has reached 845,050 BTC, with an average entry price of $75,412, resulting in total costs of $63.73 billion. Dollar assets amount to $6.71 billion, including $5.1 billion in reserves and $1.61 billion in cash; the net leverage is at 0%.

Source: Strategy.

The senior debt stack, which includes convertible notes and four lines of preferred stock, is valued at $20.8 billion at face value, representing 31% of the Bitcoin portfolio's value. The annual burden from dividends and interest is approximately $1.76 billion, covered by reserves for the next 35 months, well above the minimum requirement of 12 months.

As of August 31, STRC was trading at $97.10 against a face value of $100. Of the authorized $1 billion for buybacks, $152 million has been utilized.

STRC performance over the last six months. Data as of August 31, 2026. Source: Author.

New Game Rules

According to the framework adopted by the company, issuing shares through an ATM is only permitted when mNAV exceeds 1.00x. Below this threshold, the framework suggests switching to share buybacks — first STRC, then MSTR — as a more advantageous operation than purchasing Bitcoin.

The $5.1 billion reserve can only be used for dividends and interest, while a $5 billion Bitcoin monetization program allows for selling part of the holding to replenish reserves and fund buybacks without diluting shares.

Michael Saylor now has three independent levers, and which one is activated depends on how MSTR and STRC trade relative to their face values.

What to Watch For

The key trigger is if STRC rises above its face value of $100. This would open a second funding channel without dilution, potentially increasing the share of funds directed toward Bitcoin from the current 61% to 90% and beyond. Another signal would be a sustained mNAV above 1.00x for a week rather than a singular intraday spike.

From the calendar: Monday's 8-K disclosures will include a weekly purchase report, with earnings set for November 4, tracking the pace of the monetization limit. Saylor's posts typically precede such disclosures but are not definitive signals, as similar patterns were seen when the company sold Bitcoin, making them unreliable for predicting transaction direction.

A contraction in reserve coverage to a 12-month minimum would signal a return to selling.

Importantly, from August 23 to 30, BTC traded within a range of $77,081 to $81,360. The minimum occurred on Sunday, August 23, while the maximum was on Tuesday, August 25, amid a short squeeze. The company's average purchase price was $80,318, sitting in the upper quartile of the range. Even within a single week, Strategy chose to buy near the upper limit rather than at local lows, reflecting a strategy from the 2024-2025 phase when purchases pushed prices up rather than catching bottoms.

One possibility is that funding could come not only through ATMs or direct Bitcoin sales. The company already refers to Bitcoin as capital, and a logical next step could involve selling options on part of its Bitcoin reserve to large market makers.

Such transactions could create additional hedging flows in the spot and futures markets, but the direction will depend on the option structure. This remains unconfirmed, but given the current rhetoric from the company, this channel appears likely and could enhance market liquidity without directly increasing Strategy's BTC balance.

Currently, Strategy acts more as a stabilizing rather than a driving force: $300–800 million weekly is significant, but pales in comparison to the volumes of 2024-2025, when nearly all placements went directly into Bitcoin. The company could become a market driver again under one of two conditions: if mNAV rises above 1.15–1.20x and lifts the ATM size restriction or if STRC exceeds its face value, opening a second funding channel.

Until then, purchases at local highs should be interpreted as an initial sign that Saylor is finding the bottom of his own crisis rather than a confirmed reversal.