Key Highlights
- Developers at Stellar have introduced a three-phase plan to transition to quantum-safe cryptography in anticipation of the upcoming "Q-Day" risks.
- Migrations for enterprise wallets can commence in 2026, with all accounts expected to upgrade by the end of 2027 without needing to change their addresses.
- A significant concern remains regarding dormant accounts whose owners are unreachable.
On Tuesday, the Stellar Development Foundation revealed an extensive three-phase strategy aimed at safeguarding its blockchain from the impending dangers posed by quantum computing. This initiative reflects increasing concern among experts about a technological evolution that could potentially undermine the cryptographic systems protecting trillions in digital assets.
Stellar encounters two primary threats: the risk of attackers falsifying validator signatures to disrupt the network's consensus and the potential to derive private keys from public keys, which could lead to account hijacking. The latter poses a greater challenge and is the main focus of the Quantum Preparedness Plan.
According to the foundation, Stellar has a structural advantage over blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as its account identities are distinct from signing keys. This separation allows users to implement quantum-safe cryptography without needing to alter their addresses or migrate their balances, facilitating a smoother transition.
The planned migration will occur in three stages. Starting in 2026, post-quantum signature verification will be incorporated into Stellar’s smart contract layer, enabling enterprise wallets to begin the migration process. By 2027, a protocol-level upgrade will allow every Stellar account to implement a quantum-safe signer while retaining the same address. The timeline for the final phase, which involves fully phasing out current cryptography, will depend on advancements in quantum computing and the community's readiness.
A key unresolved issue is how to handle dormant accounts where the owners cannot be contacted. Any definitive cutoff would essentially freeze those accounts, and the Foundation emphasizes that such a decision will require community dialogue rather than being imposed from above.
Experts predict that quantum computers will eventually be able to break the elliptic curve cryptography used by most major blockchain networks, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Stellar. While the quantum threat is expected to affect various types of cryptography, these networks are particularly vulnerable due to their public and immutable ledgers—meaning data encrypted today could be decrypted once quantum technology becomes sufficiently advanced.
The timeline for when sufficiently powerful quantum computers will be operational remains uncertain, but predictions are becoming more precise. The National Institute of Standards and Technology has recently revised its threat assessment to begin as early as 2029, down from its previous estimate of 2030 and beyond. Google has also set 2029 as its internal target for achieving post-quantum readiness, while crypto researchers are eyeing a “Q-Day” that could arrive as soon as 2030.
Bitcoin developers are exploring various proposals—both official and alternative—to address the threat to the leading cryptocurrency, while Ethereum developers have created a post-quantum team to outline a strategy for their network. Stellar’s initiative represents a growing industry movement to prepare for a seemingly unavoidable post-quantum future.
Currently, XLM, the native token of the Stellar network, has dropped nearly 12% over the past week amid a wider downturn in the cryptocurrency market, recently trading at $0.196. However, it has seen an increase of almost 15% over the last month.