According to a report from The Block, the outflow of deposits from American banks to stablecoins could reach $500 billion by the end of 2028, as reported by Standard Chartered.

Analysts at the financial institution view the widespread adoption of stablecoins as an increasing structural risk for traditional finance (TradFi).

This projected amount represents about a third of the expected $2 trillion market capitalization for the segment. This estimate aligns with a previous forecast from the bank suggesting that $1 trillion in deposits could shift from emerging markets to digital dollar equivalents.

Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research, noted that risks are escalating as payments transition to blockchain technology. Additional uncertainty stems from delays in passing the Clarity Act, which is necessary for regulating the industry in the U.S.

“This issue has brought major banks into conflict with Coinbase,” the expert emphasized.

The exchange did not support the latest version of the bill, as its new wording undermines the issuance and storage of stablecoins. Conversely, the head of Bank of America warned of risks to the traditional sector: if interest accrual on such assets is permitted, banks could lose up to $6 trillion.

Standard Chartered believes that discussions in Washington only reinforce the idea that transparent regulation accelerates the widespread adoption of new financial instruments.

Vulnerability of Regional Banks

To assess risks, analysts used the ratio of net interest income to total revenue. Experts believe this metric best reflects the consequences of capital outflows.

Kendrick explained that deposits form the basis of interest margins. Their migration to stablecoins will exert direct pressure on the revenues of financial organizations.

Key findings from the study include:

  • U.S. regional banks are the most vulnerable due to their high dependence on deposit funding;
  • Diversified banks face moderate risk;
  • Investment banks and brokers are the least affected by this trend, as their income is weakly tied to deposits.

The share of interest income in the total revenue of various U.S. banks. Source: Standard Chartered.

Structural Threats

The report highlights factors that exacerbate the risk of liquidity outflows. Major issuers like Tether and Circle hold only a small portion of their reserves in bank accounts. This limits the return of capital to the traditional financial system.

Standard Chartered estimates that two-thirds of the demand for stablecoins comes from emerging markets, while developed markets account for only a third. This imbalance is what drives the forecasted $500 billion loss for U.S. banks and other leading economies.

Kendrick warned of the uneven nature of the consequences. The resilience of specific banks will depend on their ability to restructure funding models and integrate with tokenized infrastructure.

In addition to a shrinking deposit base, analysts point to threats to non-interest income associated with the growth of the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) sector.

The current supply of dollar stablecoins exceeds $300 billion. If Standard Chartered's scenario unfolds, this figure could triple, with the market approaching $2 trillion by 2028.

It is worth noting that Tether has launched USAT, a federally regulated stablecoin for the U.S. market.