Crypto Daybook AmericasShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailStandard Chartered Identifies Three 'Ifs' That Impact Bitcoin's Market Position

Your day-ahead look for June 4, 2026

By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 4, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min readMake it preferred on (Kelly Sikkema/Unsplash)

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This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.

Bitcoin BTC$62,375.43 bears are clearly enjoying the current market climate, as the cryptocurrency has seen a 14% decline over the past week, reaching lows reminiscent of the February crash. The overall cryptocurrency market has also suffered significant losses, with many experts suggesting a further downturn could occur if BTC falls below the vital $60,000 mark.

In contrast, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, presents a different outlook.

Kendrick acknowledges the recent struggles in the crypto market but believes that "the low is almost in." His perspective is based on three key factors:

1. Strategy (MSTR) may replicate its previous actions: Last December, when Strategy sold BTC, it quickly repurchased more than it had sold just two days later. Kendrick anticipates a similar pattern following their recent sale of 32 BTC last week, with the potential to buy back as much as 100 times that amount. If this occurs, Kendrick suggests it could signal that the market low has been reached.

2. ETF holdings are more resilient than anticipated: Despite a $5 billion net outflow from the 11 spot ETFs in the U.S. over the last three weeks, the overall holdings have remained stable. Since their inception in early 2024, cumulative net inflows have returned to $54.2 billion, roughly the same level as earlier this year. Kendrick notes, "They went up from 682k and then back down to now 674k (broadly unchanged). This indicates that ETF holdings are structurally stronger than I had feared back in February."

3. Liquidations are nearing completion: Approximately $1.5 billion in bitcoin futures positions have been liquidated by exchanges, a figure comparable to January's. Kendrick points out that BTC has underperformed compared to equities this year, leading to a smaller pool of leveraged longs that still need to be liquidated.

The conclusion? While there are numerous "Ifs" that complicate the prediction of an exact market bottom, Kendrick believes that accumulating BTC now is more prudent than waiting for absolute certainty.

He remarked, "I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted." Stay vigilant!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

Trending Now

Today's Market Signal

BTC is trading near its 200-week SMA. (TradingView)

The weekly chart for bitcoin aligns with Kendrick's analysis at Standard Chartered, suggesting that the bear market is likely nearing its end and the bottom could be close.

Currently, bitcoin is trading near its 200-week simple moving average, a significant indicator since previous bear markets have concluded around this same average, as illustrated by the green arrows on the chart.

Thus, if historical trends hold, a bottom may be imminent. However, it is important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Crypto Daybook Americas

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