Summary

  • Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered believes the cryptocurrency market has reached its lowest point after Bitcoin recently dipped to around $59,000.
  • Possible geopolitical easing through a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, alongside SpaceX’s IPO, are seen as potential catalysts for revitalizing the market.
  • Kendrick noted that a confirmed market recovery hinges on falling oil prices, renewed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and Strategy’s interest in purchasing BTC.

The cryptocurrency market has faced significant challenges since Bitcoin achieved record highs eight months ago, but according to Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered, it may have passed its lowest point.

Kendrick, the global head of digital asset research at the investment bank, indicated in a note released on Friday that Bitcoin's drop to nearly $59,000 signifies the coldest phase of the crypto winter—a 53% decline from its peak of $126,000 in October.

“I believe we have witnessed the low in crypto asset prices,” he stated. “Winter is over.”

On Friday, Kendrick highlighted developments that could act as catalysts for a crypto market that has been lackluster recently. He pointed to potential peace discussions between the U.S. and Iran ahead of the upcoming G7 summit, as well as SpaceX’s record-setting $1.75 trillion IPO.

He noted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global oil supplies, leading to rising energy prices which have pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, thereby making risk-free government debt more appealing than riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

The investment bank had previously set a Bitcoin price target of $100,000 in February.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading above $64,000, reflecting a 5% increase over the past week, according to CoinGecko. In contrast, the overall value of all cryptocurrencies tracked by the data aggregator has decreased slightly from $2.29 trillion to $2.277 trillion during the same timeframe.

Despite President Trump’s assertions that a U.S.-Iran deal is imminent, he suggested on Thursday that a breakthrough might occur this weekend, as reported by AP News.

Kendrick remarked, “If true, this could signal the end of escalating oil prices.”

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell by 1.5% on Friday, settling at $86 per barrel, as noted by Trading Economics. Additionally, on Myriad, a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent Dastan, traders expressed confidence that the U.S. oil benchmark will drop to $55 before reaching $120.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have experienced significant selling, with Kendrick noting it was among the sharpest since their inception. Approximately $5 billion in net outflows occurred from mid-May, according to data from CoinGlass.

Kendrick speculated that some of this selling may be due to investors reallocating funds to participate in SpaceX’s IPO, thus “selling to free up cash.”

Nonetheless, Kendrick emphasized that his outlook requires confirmation, which includes observing net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs on Friday, a sustained drop in oil prices, and an announcement from Strategy on Monday regarding an increase in their Bitcoin holdings.