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The bank believes onchain data will eventually drive the price upwards, similar to the recovery of Amazon's stock post-2001. Retail buying trends and record futures shorts indicate the market hasn't hit the bottom yet.
By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Sheldon RebackUpdated May 28, 2026, 1:13 p.m. Published May 28, 2026, 10:48 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on
Key points:
- Retail investors have surged into ether after it dipped below $2,000, driving social media sentiment into a fear-of-missing-out zone, which analysts suggest often precedes further downturns.
- Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its long-term projection of ether reaching $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40,000 by 2030, arguing that the token will align with robust activity on the Ethereum blockchain.
- Data from derivatives indicate that ether futures open interest has reached record levels as prices fall, suggesting a rise in new short positions while funding rates remain steady, indicating a lack of confidence in long positions.
Retail investors jumped into ether (ETH) trades as the price fell below $2,000 for the first time since late March, a sign that some analysts interpret as indicative of a potential further decline.
As soon as ETH dropped below this psychological threshold, social media was flooded with buy-the-dip messages, and analytics company Santiment reported a bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio of 2.4-to-1 on May 27, marking a monthly peak. This level indicates a shift into the fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) territory, where investor greed tends to rise.
Historically, the crowd often misjudges these moments. Retail investors buying into a breakdown at a key support level often reflects an optimism that could lead to additional losses. Santiment noted that the crowd "usually gets calls wrong," suggesting that a more favorable buying opportunity arises when the enthusiasm of dip-buyers wanes.
In contrast, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term outlook, with Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, reiterating his prediction from February: ether will reach $4,000 by the end of this year and $40,000 by 2030.
Kendrick argues that the relationship between the Ethereum blockchain and its token is currently misaligned. While transaction volumes and the value locked in Ethereum applications are nearing record levels, ether's price has dropped by 57% from its peak in August and has fallen 37% against bitcoin.
He likened the situation to Jeff Bezos observing Amazon's stock plummet from $113 to $6 during the 2001 dot-com crash, despite the company's ongoing improvements. Since then, Amazon's shares have appreciated about 1,000 times over the past 25 years.
"ETH will catch up to the internal metrics, it is just a matter of time," Kendrick stated.
Standard Chartered anticipates that the stablecoin sector will expand sixfold by 2028, with tokenized real-world assets increasing fiftyfold, with Ethereum expected to account for 50% to 65% of both markets.
These segments already represent over half of the total value locked in the Ethereum network. If ether reaches $4,000, the ether-to-bitcoin ratio would return to its 2021 peak of about 0.08, compared to the current ratio of approximately 0.03.
Traders placing substantial bets are not waiting for this catch-up. Ether futures open interest has surged to a record 16.39 million ETH (valued at $32.61 billion) even as the price continues to decline. This trend suggests that open interest rising alongside falling prices indicates an influx of fresh short positions rather than dip buyers. A short position implies a bet on price declines.
Meanwhile, funding rates, which are the fees perpetual traders pay to maintain positions, have remained stable at 0.0022%, indicating a lack of willingness to take long positions, according to Coinglass data.
Thus, the current bullish sentiment surrounding ETH relies on a retail crowd known for premature buying and a bank reiterating a previously set target from three months ago.
Pay attention to the sentiment of the crowd rather than just price movements. Santiment emphasizes that the best time to buy is when dip-buyers start to panic. Right now, they are still enthusiastic.
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Key points:
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