Your day-ahead look for June 11, 2026
By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 11, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on SpaceX shares are set to begin trading tomorrow. (SpaceX/Unsplash)Key Insights:
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
Later today, Elon Musk's SpaceX will determine the price for its initial public offering on Nasdaq. Currently, the company's valuation stands at approximately $1.77 trillion, but blockchain-based prediction markets and pre-IPO derivatives suggest this figure may be understated.
This discrepancy is highlighted by three platforms: Onchain perpetual futures from Ventuals and trade.xyz, both operating on Hyperliquid, along with Polymarket's implied closing price for the first trading day. Data from Allium indicates these markets are estimating a valuation between $1.8 trillion and $2.1 trillion.
Currently, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, are pricing in a 64% likelihood that SpaceX's first-day closing valuation will exceed $2 trillion. The chance of it closing above $3 trillion is pegged at just 5%.
In essence, while a solid debut is anticipated, expectations for an overwhelming success are tempered.
The IPO will also serve as a significant test for bitcoin traders, as it aligns with the prevailing viewpoint that the offering has been siphoning risk capital from the crypto market, contributing to recent declines in prices.
If this perspective is accurate, we might see capital flow back into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies once the IPO frenzy calms down. Stay tuned!
For further insights into today's altcoin and derivatives activity, check out Crypto Markets Today. To view a complete list of this week's events, refer to CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
Trending Topics
- Corporate bitcoin purchasing has plummeted from $500 million daily to nearly zero (CoinDesk): Bitcoin is facing a decline in buyers from two major sources. The significant drop in spot ETF purchases has been widely noted, but the sharp decrease in buying by companies holding digital assets has received less attention.
- Stock futures rise as U.S. conducts strikes against Iran: Live updates (CNBC): Stock futures saw an uptick on Thursday following the U.S. completing its military actions against Iran, despite ongoing hostilities reported by Gulf nations. S&P 500 futures increased by 0.72%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 1.1%. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 0.64% rise.
- BlackRock's income-yielding bitcoin ETF is close to launching with a competitive fee (CoinDesk): BlackRock has submitted its fourth amendment to the U.S. SEC for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, featuring a management fee of 0.65% that undercuts its competitors.
- Singapore's DBS Bank to introduce tokenized gold for retail customers (CoinDesk): DBS plans to launch a product called DBS Physical Gold Tokens on its digibank platform, with potential availability on the DBS Digital Exchange for accredited investors and institutions in the future.
Market Insights
BTC compared to Nasdaq futures. (TradingView)The chart illustrates the daily price movements of bitcoin alongside Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures since March.
A strong positive correlation observed between these two assets weakened in May, when the Nasdaq saw a significant rally while bitcoin's price declined. However, as Nasdaq trends downward this month, a potential realignment may be occurring.
The crucial question is whether bitcoin can maintain its position after absorbing considerable losses while facing the possibility of a Nasdaq selloff. Trading firm Wintermute noted last year that the correlation between bitcoin and Nasdaq tends to intensify during market downturns. If this correlation persists, bitcoin could fall below $60,000.
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Key Insights:
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
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