Your day-ahead look for June 12, 2026
By Shaurya Malwa, Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jun 12, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Elon Musk's SpaceX is live on Nasdaq today. (CoinDesk archives)SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.
After months of anticipation, SpaceX is set to commence trading on Nasdaq today, following a record $75 billion investment, marking the largest IPO in history. The outcome of this event could have significant implications for various financial markets, including cryptocurrency.
One prevailing theory suggests that the recent withdrawal of over $5 billion from bitcoin BTC$63,733.68 ETFs, which caused bitcoin's value to dip below $60,000, may have been influenced by investors reallocating funds for the IPO. If this theory holds, a portion of that capital could return to the crypto market in the upcoming days, potentially boosting prices.
The IPO presents a dual scenario. On one side, a successful launch could indicate strong market confidence, attracting new investments and fostering the risk-on sentiment that often benefits bitcoin and the broader crypto market in tandem with equities.
Conversely, caution is warranted. The analyst known as Doctor Profit, who accurately predicted bitcoin's downturn since October, claims that record-setting IPOs often signal excessive optimism and the peaks of market cycles rather than new growth phases. "The closest comparison is Saudi Aramco at $1.70T, which went public just 10 weeks before the COVID crash in 2020. Aramco is not the only large IPO that occurred near market peaks," Doctor Profit shared on X. "It's essential to remember that the largest IPOs typically emerge during periods of extreme optimism and euphoria, where investors are inclined to pay nearly any price."
Examining the five largest IPOs—Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, NTT Mobile Communication Network, and Visa—most occurred near significant or interim peaks in the S&P 500 Index, with only NTT being the exception.
If this trend continues, stocks may experience renewed selling pressure, which could negatively impact other risk assets, including bitcoin, which may drop below the $60,000 mark, a threshold it briefly fell below last week before recovering to $63,000. Investors should stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- SpaceX's crypto-traded IPO was sharply falling. It now points upward to a $2.4 trillion valuation (CoinDesk): SpaceX’s crypto contracts fluctuated between $176 and $183, with open interest nearing $216 million, suggesting a valuation of $2.4 trillion for the newly listed company, 35% higher than the $1.77 trillion IPO price.
- BlackRock files to list its bitcoin income ETF, with expected debut next week (CoinDesk): BlackRock's fund will generate income by selling call options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest spot bitcoin ETF. Monthly, it will write options on a portion of its holdings and earn premiums as income.
- Metaplanet buys Siiibo Securities to accelerate bitcoin financial ecosystem plans (CoinDesk): Metaplanet acquired Siiibo Securities for approximately $13.1 million, marking its first step in a long-term strategy to create a bitcoin-focused financial ecosystem.
- U.S. stock futures pop on signs of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal: Live updates (CNBC): Stock index futures increased on Friday after Iran indicated a proposed peace agreement would lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures rose by about 0.6%, along with Nasdaq-100 futures. Global stocks also experienced gains.
Today’s signal
S&P 500's performance since 1998. (TradingView)The chart indicates that four of the five largest IPOs, including Saudi Aramco's in 2019, took place near significant price peaks in the S&P 500 Index.
This trend supports the view that record IPOs, such as SpaceX's, often reflect excessive optimism and euphoria, potentially leading to future price declines.
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