IGV's surge alters a long-standing correlation with Bitcoin, but historical trends hint at a potential for Bitcoin to rebound.
By James Van Straten|Edited by Jamie Crawley33 min ago1 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on IGV, BTCUSD (TradingView)SummaryShow- Software stocks are diverging as IGV reaches a one-year high against Bitcoin, hitting the 0.0016 mark.
- The IGV has increased by 40% since April's low and is approaching record highs, while Bitcoin is down 29% in 2026.
- Historically, past instances of negative correlation have ended with Bitcoin rebounding, but this time software stocks may be breaking away permanently.
Software stocks are now separating from Bitcoin BTC$64,298.84. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has reached a one-year peak in relation to the leading cryptocurrency, with the ratio at 0.0016.
For years, Bitcoin and IGV moved in tandem, but this connection began to erode in May. Currently, IGV is down just 1% in 2026, whereas Bitcoin has experienced a 29% decline. Additionally, the 20-day rolling correlation has turned negative for the first time since May 2024.
Since its April low, IGV has surged by 40%, overcoming earlier fears of a potential “SaaS apocalypse” impacting the sector. The ETF is now only 13% shy of its all-time high, while Bitcoin lags approximately 50% behind its peak.
Conversely, Bitcoin was impacted by the selloff in software stocks, particularly after IGV fell 40% from its peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, as the market tends to view Bitcoin as a risk asset similar to software stocks.
Historically, Bitcoin advocates find some hope in the past. Instances of negative correlation have occurred during Bitcoin's 2018 bear market, the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, and the summer 2021 ban on Bitcoin mining in China. Each time, Bitcoin managed to recover, and the correlation turned positive again.
The pressing question now is whether history will repeat itself or if the current breakout in software indicates a more permanent divide between digital assets and tech equities.
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