Major speculators have sharply reduced their short positions in digital gold. They now hold a record net long position, according to MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe, citing analyst Tom McClellan.
A fascinating chart.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 22, 2026
Non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in #Bitcoin in the entire dataset.
The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the "net short position" is at historic… pic.twitter.com/hX3qAd8lw9
Over the past month, investors shifted their net position from +1000 to -1600 contracts. This indicates that "smart money" on the CME has rapidly moved to bullish bets, McClellan noted.
Van de Poppe highlighted two similar episodes from the past:
- In 2023, a sharp reduction in net shorts preceded a 70% rise in Bitcoin;
- In 2025, a similar situation led to a 190% rally.
The Bottom is Near
The MN Trading founder believes the bear market has lasted for 14 months—exactly the same duration as corrections in 2013-2015, 2017-2019, and 2021-2022.
The best chart in the ecosystem.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 21, 2026
The valuation of $BTC vs. Gold.
It's not about the valuation of $BTC vs. the Dollar, we all know that this is going to go up over the years.
It's about #Bitcoin vs. Gold given that these two are hard assets.
The current valuation is the lowest… pic.twitter.com/Pqxeo9cSz5
This is illustrated by the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart. Van de Poppe believes this pair, rather than the dollar exchange rate, reflects the true state of affairs, as both assets are considered "hard currencies."
The flagship cryptocurrency peaked against the precious metal in December 2024, after which a prolonged decline began.
The October dollar record for Bitcoin ($126,000) may not have been a sign of its strength. It was likely a result of a rally in gold and silver, which simply pulled Bitcoin's dollar price along. In real terms (in gold), Bitcoin has been falling for over a year,” the expert noted.
According to him, the market is nearing its bottom. The weekly RSI ratio of the two assets has dropped to a historic low. Such values have only been recorded at the end of previous cycles.
“We are likely not at the beginning, but in the final chapter of the bear market. Every time the RSI in the Bitcoin/gold pair reached such extreme lows, it was followed by years of upward trends,” van de Poppe explained.
Additional Signals
According to CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, the 60-day change in the capitalization of USDT has fallen below -$3 billion for the first time since late 2022. At that time, Bitcoin formed a cyclical bottom around $16,000 amid maximum fear and forced liquidations.
USDT Just Triggered a Signal Seen Only at the 2022 Bottom
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 23, 2026
“Extreme liquidity stress has historically marked opportunity, but only once selling exhaustion is confirmed.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/xxGJgQziEF
The second episode is occurring now, as the first cryptocurrency trades in the $65,000-70,000 range.
On the daily timeframe, three instances of USDT outflows exceeding $1 billion in a single day have been recorded. Each coincided with local/global lows or sharp spikes in the volatility of digital gold.
“The redemption of USDT on such a scale reflects the exit of institutional or large holders from the ecosystem. Historically, this occurs at exhaustion, not at the beginning of a prolonged downtrend,” emphasized Moreno de Vicente.
However, context is important: in previous cycles, after the forced deleveraging and stabilization of USDT flows, Bitcoin transitioned to confident growth as liquidity conditions normalized.
The expert noted that the risk/reward ratio directly depends on stablecoin dynamics:
- If the reduction in USDT continues, price pressure may persist;
- If outflows cease or turn into inflows, the market could quickly return to a growth phase.
Analysts at Lookonchain also noted the return of well-known Bitcoin supporter Erik Voorhees to the market.
Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees), an early #Bitcoin supporter and founder of ShapeShift, is buying back $ETH.
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) February 23, 2026
One year ago, he sold 11,616 $ETH ($33.94M) at $2,922.
Recently, he spent 20.38M $USDC to buy back 9,911 $ETH at $2,057.https://t.co/pYQfA1ywec pic.twitter.com/ft9dUkovHS
A year ago, he sold 11,616 ETH worth $33.94 million at a price of $2,922. On February 22, Voorhees spent $20.38 million in USDC to buy back 9,911 ETH at $2,057.
It’s worth noting that the Sharpe ratio hinted at a potential Bitcoin recovery. The metric reached -38.38, a level previously observed before market reversals in 2015, 2019, and late 2022.