The first cryptocurrency is undervalued "compared to gold and the global money supply," suggesting a potential price reversal, according to Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3.

Bitcoin is ~24-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended.

When the BTC/gold ratio's Z-score drops below -2, it has always preceded major rallies.

Mean reversion is the most probable move next. šŸš€

ā€” Samson Mow (@Excellion) February 28, 2026

Mow noted that Bitcoin prices remain 24-66% below trend levels relative to these assets, while the gold market appears overheated.

He highlighted Bitcoin's Z-score, a metric indicating the deviation of its price from its historical average. Values below zero traditionally signal that an asset is undervalued.

Historically, when the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls below -2, it has preceded significant rallies. Currently, the metric stands at -1.24.

In November 2022, following the collapse of FTX, the index dropped below -3. In the following 12 months, Bitcoin's price surged over 150%. 

A similar situation occurred in March 2020 during the market crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The metric fell below -2, and Bitcoin found its bottom around $3700. Over the next year, the asset appreciated by 300%, reaching an all-time high of about $69,000 by November 2021.

The demand for precious metals as a safe-haven asset has significantly impacted the RWA sector. The market capitalization of tokenized gold has already surpassed $6 billion, with a daily trading volume of $1.55 billion.

Source: CoinGecko.

The main beneficiaries of this trend are the stablecoins XAUT, with a market cap of $3 billion, and PAXG, at $2.5 billion.

The liquidity shift towards safe-haven instruments is also evident in the perp-DEX segment. On-chain statistics from the Hyperliquid platform show that perpetual contracts for tokenized gold and silver have become leaders in trading volumes.

Source: Hyperliquid.

As of this writing, gold and silver are trading at $5410 and $95.62, respectively.

Source: Gold Price.

Traders are actively using HIP-3 markets to hedge their portfolios with traditional assets while remaining within the DeFi ecosystem.

In February, Kraken launched 24/7 trading of perpetual futures on tokenized gold, indices, and tech giant stocks.