Mow claims that the bottom for Bitcoin's price has been established, citing changes in the traditional four-year halving cycle, though many analysts foresee further declines.
By Olivier Acuna|Edited by Oliver Knight Jun 28, 2026, 3:07 p.m. 2 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on Samson Mow believes the Bitcoin bottom is set, arguing that halving cycles have changed. Samson Mow (Pixelmatic)SummaryShow- Samson Mow believes that Bitcoin's price has already found its bottom, asserting that the conventional four-year halving cycle has accelerated following a peak reached 37 days prior to the April 2024 halving.
- Conversely, various analysts suggest Bitcoin has not yet hit its bottom, citing technical indicators such as bear crosses in long-term moving averages and the 200-week moving average as signals for potential further declines.
- Predictions for a possible bottom vary significantly, with some experts anticipating limited downside while others forecast Bitcoin could drop to between $40,000 and $55,000 later this year before a sustainable low is reached.
In a recent post on X, Samson Mow stated that he believes Bitcoin has already bottomed out, attributing this to an acceleration in the traditional four-year halving cycle.
“I find it fascinating how certain individuals are convinced that the bottom will occur in four months based on ‘cycles,’” remarked Mow, who is recognized for his $1 million Bitcoin prediction and his involvement in El Salvador's Bitcoin initiatives as well as promoting global Bitcoin adoption by nation-states.
“However, we experienced an all-time high (ATH) just 37 days before the halving, which suggests that even if you believe in cycles, you should consider that they have accelerated. The bottom is in,” said Mow, who previously served as chief strategy officer at Blockstream.
Mow argues that Bitcoin's all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving indicates that the traditional four-year cycle is no longer a reliable reference point.
Mow is not alone in suggesting that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has undergone a transformation. Following the rise to an all-time high before the April 2024 halving, numerous analysts indicated that increasing institutional interest, spurred by the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, could modify the historical patterns that have typically followed each halving. Nevertheless, some contend it is premature to conclude that the cycle has indeed changed.
$55,000 More Likely
Contrary to Mow's assertion, many analysts have expressed differing views, arguing that Bitcoin may be nearing its market bottom or still has room to decline, utilizing various indicators and models.
CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole recently noted that if you are curious about how much lower Bitcoin might drop, the answer, according to one historically reliable contrarian indicator, is not significantly lower.
This indicator is based on Bitcoin's 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages. The 50-week average, which reflects approximately one year, is on the verge of falling below the 100-week line, creating what analysts refer to as a "bear cross." Historically, such signals have coincided with market bottoms, prompting some analysts to interpret this pattern as a bullish sign.
In a more recent analysis, Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, stated that he believes the bottom is more likely to be around $55,000, not expected until between August and October. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMex, has taken a more pessimistic view, predicting that Bitcoin could bottom at around $40,000 within the next six months.
James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk, recently mentioned that Bitcoin may still need to decline by 15% or more to establish a bottom. This forecast is based on the well-known 200-week moving average indicator.
“Given Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, on-chain data indicates that the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become a critical battleground,” he stated.
Van Straten highlighted that in every significant bear market since 2011, Bitcoin has ultimately traded below its realized price before finding a cycle bottom. “Thus far, Bitcoin has not dipped below this level in the current cycle,” he added.