This week, "Deconstruction" focuses on new cryptocurrency regulations in Russia, the use of AI instead of developers at Coinbase, and market manipulation in prediction markets. We will also discuss saving the economy from neural networks, contrasting cryptocurrency regulations in Asia, and the de-anonymization of users through OSINT.
New Limits in Russia
The State Duma has prepared a bill to regulate the cryptocurrency market. A mandatory 48-hour freeze on large transfers will be implemented: if a legal service processes such a transfer without a pause and the assets are lost to fraudsters, it must reimburse the client for the stolen funds from its own resources.
At the same time, importers are allowed to use any cryptocurrencies and foreign exchanges, which will help them bypass sanctions. The purchase of traditional securities with cryptocurrency will also be legalized.
AI Writes 95% of Coinbase's Code
Coinbase has shifted its code creation to AI, with AI now generating 95% of the code. Each engineer currently has up to 10 AI assistants, collectively performing the work equivalent to 1,200 full-time employees.
The hype around social Web3 services has ended: the tech sector is moving to a pragmatic model where developers are replaced by neural networks, focusing on what truly generates profit—stablecoins and the tokenization of real assets.
Manipulations on Polymarket
Systematic manipulations have been identified on the Polymarket platform. Exactly ten seconds before the end of a five-minute contract on Bitcoin's price, a manipulator injects a large amount of capital into the spot market, temporarily distorting the price and profiting from it.
Decentralized prediction markets remain vulnerable to brute capital force, and the multi-million dollar profits of the perpetrators are effectively paid for by ordinary retail investors through their direct losses.
Resistance to the AI Race
A former OpenAI researcher has published a scenario for escaping the AI race: an agreement to freeze the AI race and place data centers in vulnerable territories of competitors to protect against deception.
Society has recognized the real threat to jobs, as the forecast of a 12% drop in employment indicates a collapse of the traditional economy long before governments implement and learn to distribute trillions from a "computational power tax."
The Asian Divide
Geography now determines the legal status of cryptocurrency users. In Japan, the cryptocurrency market is coming under strict investment legislation—this is a path to complete assimilation, legal security for investors, and clear taxation.
In China, however, the use of mixers or private coins is proposed to be considered sufficient evidence of intent to launder money, with the defense having to prove otherwise in court.
OSINT Against Anonymity
OSINT specialists link wallet addresses to real people's names in four stages. To fully reveal one's identity and eliminate financial privacy, a user only needs to make one mistake.
Notable detectives lack specialized education and conduct their most high-profile investigations using ordinary laptops and free tools available to everyone.
This is a shortened version of the podcast. Watch the full episode:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xqQr2lO0XQ
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