Robinhood is expected to see a revenue surge from prediction markets, potentially reaching $586 million by 2026, driven by World Cup activity.
Brokerage firm Robinhood is projected to see significant gains from heightened activity in prediction markets during the World Cup, with estimates suggesting a revenue increase from these markets could reach $586 million in 2026, according to Bernstein.
During the initial days of the tournament, Robinhood experienced a dramatic rise in daily trading volume, jumping from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion the following day, coinciding with the USA vs. Paraguay match. This starkly contrasts with the $1.4 billion generated during last year's Super Bowl.
Bernstein forecasts that Robinhood's revenue from prediction markets will rise from $150 million in 2025, marking a staggering 286% growth. By 2026, this revenue stream is expected to constitute about 17% of the company's commission income and 10% of its overall revenue.
The analysis also points to Robinhood's collaboration with Rothera, a licensed exchange and clearinghouse regulated by the CFTC. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts, primarily driven by World Cup and MLB-related betting.
Robinhood benefits from a strong user base and competitive pricing, with fees capped at $0.01 per contract and discounts available for Gold subscribers. However, increasing competition is evident, as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have begun offering contracts on private events and regulated cryptocurrency futures, respectively.
In a related note, the head of Bubblemaps recently remarked on the strategic implications of prediction markets, referring to them as tools for intelligence and information warfare.
