Broker Robinhood is set to benefit from record activity in prediction markets during the World Cup, according to Bernstein, as reported by The Block.
In the early days of the tournament, daily trading volume on the platform surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12 (during the USA vs. Paraguay match). For comparison, last year's Super Bowl generated $1.4 billion.
Analysts expect Robinhood's revenue from prediction markets to grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% increase. By 2026, this segment is projected to account for about 17% of commission revenue and 10% of the company's total revenue.
Bernstein also highlighted Robinhood's partnership with Rothera, a licensed CFTC exchange and clearinghouse. Since its launch on May 28, the platform has processed around 200 million contracts, with nearly all volume coming from World Cup and MLB contracts.
Among Robinhood's advantages, analysts pointed out access to its own user base and competitive pricing. The company charges a fee of up to $0.01 per contract and offers Gold subscribers discounts of up to 50%.
Bernstein also noted increasing competitive pressure. Polymarket has launched contracts on events involving private companies, while Kalshi has introduced regulated CFTC perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies.
It is worth noting that in May, the head of Bubblemaps referred to prediction markets as "a tool for intelligence and information warfare."