Summary
- Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, asserts that cryptocurrency categories are capturing a "disproportionate share" of the company's prediction markets, which could lead to sports betting becoming a minority.
- In Q2 2026, Robinhood's revenue from event contracts soared over tenfold year-on-year, reaching $156 million.
- In August alone, trading volume hit 4.7 billion contracts, roughly 15 times that of August 2025.
Vlad Tenev, the CEO of Robinhood, believes that cryptocurrency is poised to dominate the prediction markets in much the same way the platform previously disrupted Wall Street commission structures.
In an interview with Jim Cramer on CNBC's "Mad Money," Tenev highlighted that contracts linked to cryptocurrencies are already securing a significant portion of Robinhood's prediction markets, forecasting that sports betting will soon dwindle to a minority status.
Myriad: How high will Robinhood stock go? Click to make your prediction.Prediction markets, also known as event contracts, allow individuals to trade yes-or-no bets on various outcomes—such as Federal Reserve decisions, elections, or sporting events—without using traditional sportsbooks. These trades are classified as derivatives and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which Tenev argues differentiates them from mere gambling.
"We are already observing categories like crypto claiming a disproportionate share," Tenev told Cramer. "I predict that within a few years, sports will actually become the minority, similar to how active trading has evolved."
He referred to sports contracts as a "wedge" that initiated the entire business. "Sports have been an excellent means to attract users, generate liquidity, and build interest," he stated, "but the industry is expanding well beyond just sports."
Data supports this shift, even if Tenev’s timeline is still speculative. Robinhood's event-contract revenue skyrocketed to $156 million in Q2 2026, marking it as the company's fastest-growing segment, while revenue from crypto trading declined. In August, contracts were traded 4.7 billion times, which is approximately 15 times the volume recorded a year earlier.
Robinhood's event-contract platform is built on Kalshi, an exchange that successfully contested a legal battle against the CFTC to offer contracts related to elections. Additionally, Robinhood has partnered with Rothera, a CFTC-licensed joint venture with trading firm Susquehanna, which was tested during this year's World Cup. Recently, they expanded their reach by acquiring minority stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market offshoot OG.com.
The competition in this space is intensifying, with CME, Coinbase, and a number of decentralized platforms vying to attract traders to event contracts—a category that crypto-native platforms like Polymarket had popularized well before traditional brokerages entered the fray.
Tenev positions both sports and crypto contracts as part of a broader bet on ownership. "We believe ownership is crucial, not only because it gives individuals a stake in the game and potential financial benefits, but also because a society where more people possess quality financial assets is inherently more stable," he explained. This rationale also underpins Robinhood's 3% match on retirement contributions.
Crypto contracts align seamlessly with this ownership philosophy as they allow users to monetize opinions. "Through prediction markets, you can directly trade on an idea or insight," Tenev remarked, citing the Clarity Act, a legislative proposal aimed at clarifying the regulatory landscape for digital assets, as an example of a market they offer.
However, not everyone in Washington is supportive, as the concept of "we have a market on that" raises concerns resembling those of allowing betting on anything. Since January, lawmakers have introduced over 10 bills targeting prediction markets, including the PREDICT Act, which would prohibit members of Congress and senior officials from trading contracts tied to political events. Critics argue that mixing sports and political wagers with retirement accounts blurs the line between investing and gambling, a dilemma regulators are currently navigating.
Tenev is not waiting for these discussions to conclude. His analysis suggests that sports contracts could become a minority in Robinhood's event-contract offerings within, as he puts it, "a few years."