Retail investors in the first cryptocurrency have nearly exited the market, with their activity dropping to a nine-year low. This observation was shared by analyst Darkfost.

💥 Retail activity hit a 9-year low.

Retail activity has reached a record low.
Retail investors are clearly absent from the market.

— 💡In this chart, retail activity is represented by inflows below 1 BTC on Binance.
Binance remains the most widely used platform among this… pic.twitter.com/IS0tuCi2uD

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 3, 2026

The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows on Binance from small players has dropped to 332 BTC, the lowest since the exchange launched in 2017.

“Binance remains the most widely used platform among this category of players and consistently records the highest trading volumes,” the expert noted.

Among the reasons for the current trend, he highlighted:

  • Storage on exchanges. Access to cryptocurrency has become easier, and many users believe that holding funds with a third party is safer even after the FTX collapse. This leads to greater centralization of asset ownership;
  • Growing popularity of ETFs. In January 2024, the average monthly inflow from retail investors on Binance was around 1,000 BTC, three times higher than current levels. Now, investors looking to profit from Bitcoin's volatility can use exchange-traded funds, which are considered safer;
  • Capital outflow. Some market participants have shifted from cryptocurrencies to stocks and commodities, largely influenced by the Middle East conflict, which has driven up oil prices;
  • Accumulation. Some retail investors have increased their Bitcoin holdings and transitioned to the category of large holders. However, the impact of this factor is minimal.

“The evolution of Bitcoin since 2017 has clearly changed the market structure, and small participants have likely adapted accordingly, leading to lower on-chain activity compared to previous cycles,” Darkfost concluded.

A True Bear Market

The specialist also noted that the share of Bitcoin at a loss has approached levels seen during the previous bear market. Currently, around 11.2 million BTC are in profit relative to their purchase price, not far from the 9 million BTC recorded in 2022.

📊 The level of supply in profit and in loss is now reaching levels typical of a true bear market.

🟢 Currently, around 11.2 million BTC remain in profit relative to their purchase price.
This is not far from the lowest level of BTC in profit recorded during the previous bear… pic.twitter.com/U5CtR3AQBq

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 2, 2026

“On the other hand, about 8.2 million BTC are at a loss. This is quite significant, considering that during the last phase of the prolonged decline, this figure reached around 10.6 million BTC,” he noted.

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., the current market pressure is due to the dominance of short positions. The Positioning Index has dropped to -3.1.

Shorts are opening. Longs are getting flushed out. The Positioning Index has turned negative again. Is this a regime shift or a bear trap?

☕️ Adler AM #140👇https://t.co/yMs5dURJvJ pic.twitter.com/PPxLCFjtQf

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 3, 2026

The 30-day moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local peak of +3 in mid-March at a price of $73,925, then reversed and fell to the current value. Over the past two and a half weeks, the metric crossed the zero mark and continued to decline, reflecting a sustained increase in bearish positions.

During the same period, the Bitcoin price corrected from $74,883 to $66,603. The 30-day moving average declined in sync with the market, confirming its weakening structure.

Adler Jr. stated that the main condition for a reversal is for the SMA-30d to recover above the zero mark and maintain positive values for two to three days.

“Until then, the market structure remains clear: the opening of short positions dominates,” he concluded.

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $67,000.

Recall that in early April, analysts from CryptoQuant reported that large holders have shifted from accumulating the first cryptocurrency to distributing it. According to them, this trend is long-term.